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IAEA shows diplomats images of suspected Iran nuclear clean-up

 

The U.N. nuclear watchdog showed a series of satellite images on Wednesday that added to suspicions of clean-up activity at an Iranian military site it wants to inspect, Western diplomats said, but Tehran's envoy dismissed the presentation.

The pictures, displayed during a closed-door briefing for member states of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), indicated determined efforts in recent months to remove any incriminating evidence at the Parchin site, the diplomats said.

 

Russia warns against attacking Iran over nuclear fears

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Iran and US options for preventive military strikes

 

in fondo all'articolo è possibile scaricare il .pdf del paper

 

Questa una ulteriore analisi di scenari ipotetici in caso di attacco. La segnalo perchè (a mio avviso) è ben fatta: nonostante sia lunga 98 pagine è molto facile da leggere in quanto corredata da parecchie tabelle e immagini di scenari.

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Israel Discussing Iran 'Red Line' With U.S.: Netanyahu

 

srael and the United States are in discussion on setting a “red line” for Iran’s nuclear programme, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said.

 

“We’re discussing it right now with the United States,” Netanyahu said in an interview with Canada’s CBC television aired late on Sunday.

 

In the interview, two days after Canada suspended diplomatic relations with Tehran over its nuclear project, Netanyahu again signalled that a clear boundary - which he has yet to define publicly - could obviate the need for military action.

 

Netanyahu’s recent calls for world powers to set a “clear red line” that would show they were determined to stop Tehran’s nuclear drive has suggested a growing impatience with the United States, Israel’s main ally.

 

Washington, which has resisted the idea of laying down red lines for Iran in the past, has been pressing the Israeli leader to give diplomacy and sanctions imposed on the Islamic Republic more time to work to rein in Iran’s nuclear work peacefully.

 

'Frustrated' IAEA Wants Immediate Access To Iran Site

 

The head of the U.N. nuclear watchdog pressed Iran on Monday to grant his inspectors immediate access to the Parchin military site, where they believe Tehran may have conducted explosives tests relevant to the development of nuclear weapons.

...

“Without Iran’s full engagement, we will not be able to start the process to resolve all outstanding issues, including those concerning possible military dimensions to its nuclear program,” Amano said, according to a copy of his speech.

Iran’s envoy to the IAEA, Ali Asghar Soltanieh, told reporters that Tehran would “continue” to cooperate with the U.N. agency but that its national security must be taken into consideration.

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War and Bluff: Iran, Israel and the United States

 

From the Iranian point of view, a nuclear program has been extremely valuable. Having one has brought Iran prestige in the Islamic world and has given it a level of useful global political credibility.

...

While a nuclear program has given Iran political leverage, actually acquiring nuclear weapons would increase the risk of military action against Iran. A failed military action would benefit Iran, proving its power. By contrast, a successful attack that dramatically delayed or destroyed Iran's nuclear capability would be a serious reversal. The Stuxnet episode, assuming it was an Israeli or U.S. attempt to undermine Iran's program using cyberwarfare, is instructive in this regard. Although the United States hailed Stuxnet as a major success, it hardly stopped the Iranian program, if the Israelis are to be believed. In that sense, it was a failure.

Using nuclear weapons against Israel would be catastrophic to Iran. The principle of mutual assured destruction, which stabilized the U.S.-Soviet balance in the Cold War, would govern Iran's use of nuclear weapons. If Iran struck Israel, the damage would be massive, forcing the Iranians to assume that the Israelis and their allies (specifically, the United States) would launch a massive counterattack on Iran, annihilating large parts of Iran's population.

...

Underlying Israel's hesitancy about whether it will attack has been the question of whether it can pull off an attack. This is not a political question, but a military and technical one. Iran, after all, has been preparing for an attack on its nuclear facilities since their inception.

...

Dispersed sites reduce Israel's ability to strike hard at a target and to acquire a battle damage assessment that would tell Israel three things: first, whether the target had been destroyed when it was buried under rock and concrete; second, whether the target contained what Israel thought it contained; and third, whether the strike had missed a backup site that replicated the one it destroyed. Assuming the Israelis figured out that another attack was needed, could their air force mount a second air campaign lasting days or weeks? They have a small air force and the distances involved are great.

 

Meanwhile, deploying special operations forces to so many targets so close to Tehran and so far from Iran's borders would be risky, to say the least. Some sort of exotic attack, for example one using nuclear weapons to generate electromagnetic pulses to paralyze the region, is conceivable -- but given the size of the Tel Aviv-Jerusalem-Haifa triangle, it is hard to imagine Israel wanting to set such a precedent. If the Israelis have managed to develop a new weapons technology unknown to anyone, all conventional analyses are off. But if the Israelis had an ultrasecret miracle weapon, postponing its use might compromise its secrecy. I suspect that if they had such a weapon, they would have used it by now.

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Iran nuclear: UN watchdog IAEA rebukes Tehran

 

The board of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) expressed "serious concern" about Tehran's refusal to suspend uranium enrichment.

Iran insists that its nuclear programme is peaceful in purpose but the US, Israel and other states fear it is building nuclear weapons.

Thirty-one out of 35 member states voted in favour of the resolution, one voted against and three abstained.

Cuba opposed the measure and Egypt, Ecuador and Tunisia abstained. All four countries are members of the Non-Aligned Movement, of which Iran is currently the rotating president

...

The IAEA's resolution was proposed by the United States, China, Russia, Germany, France and the United Kingdom.

This move is a display of unity by the six world powers, says the BBC's Bethany Bell, in Vienna.

It also increases the pressure on Iran at a time when Israel has stepped up hints about a possible military strike, our correspondent adds.

The US and EU have also imposed additional, unilateral sanctions that have targeted Iran's vital oil exports.

Last weekend, EU foreign ministers said they were considering additional measures.

On Thursday, in its statement to the board, the 27-nation bloc described Iran's "procrastination" as "unacceptable".

"Iran has not engaged seriously and without preconditions in talks aimed at restoring international confidence in the exclusively peaceful nature of its nuclear programme," it said.

The IAEA has held a series of high-profile meetings with Iran that began in January to agree how to carry out its investigations.

But its Director General Yukiya Amano said this week that no concrete results had been achieved and called the lack of progress "frustrating".

 

U.S. says Iran "demolishing" facility at Parchin site

 

A U.S. envoy accused Iran on Thursday of "systematically demolishing" a facility at the Parchin military site that United Nations nuclear inspectors want to visit as part of their investigation into suspected weapons research.

 

Secondo l'articolo una parte degli edifici che risultano visibile da questa immagine sarebbero stati demoliti

http://s1.reutersmedia.net/resources/r/?m=02&d=20120913&t=2&i=652530064&w=320&fh=&fw=&ll=&pl=&r=CBRE88C17NY00

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Massive Anti-Mine Naval Exercise Underway in Gulf

 

Naval forces from more than 30 countries were engaged Monday in a massive minesweeping exercise in the Arabian Gulf, U.S. officials said, amid Iranian threats to block the strategic Strait of Hormuz.

 

The U.S.-led International Mine Countermeasures Exercise (IMCMEX), the first of its kind in the Middle East, comes amid heightened tensions between Israel and Iran over the Islamic republic’s controversial nuclear program.

 

The exercise kicked off Sunday, the same day the head of Iran’s Revolutionary Guards warned of retaliation against the Strait of Hormuz, Israel and nearby U.S. bases if his country is attacked and as Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu claimed Tehran is “90 percent” toward having a nuclear bomb.

 

U.S. defense officials insist the exercise is not aimed at Iran or any one country but is simply designed to hone counter-mine capabilities among allies and partners.

 

Iran Nuclear Chief Accuses IAEA

 

Iran's nuclear chief said Monday that "terrorists and saboteurs" might have infiltrated the International Atomic Energy Agency in an effort to derail his nation's atomic program, in Tehran's harshest attack on the integrity of the U.N. organization and its investigation of allegations that Iran is striving to make nuclear arms.

Fereydoun Abbasi, a vice-president of the country, also rebuked the U.S. in comments to the IAEA's 155-nation general conference, reflecting Iran's determination to continue defying international pressure aimed at curbing its nuclear program and nudging it toward cooperation with the IAEA inspection.

Mr. Abbasi said, "Terrorists and saboteurs might have intruded the agency and might be making decisions covertly." Citing what he said was an example of sabotage on Aug. 17 at an underground enrichment plant, he said IAEA inspectors arrived to inspect it shortly after power lines were blown up.

"Does this visit have any connection to that detonation?" he asked.

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Bahrain, UAE probe suspicious shipments headed to Iran

 

Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates have confiscated a number of items Iran may have sought for its nuclear program, a development that diplomats said showed how enforcement of UN sanctions against Tehran is steadily improving.

One of the items heading to Iran but confiscated by Bahrain was carbon fiber, the diplomats told Reuters, a dual-use material UN experts have said would be crucial if Iran was to develop more advanced nuclear enrichment centrifuge technology.

 

IAEA renews pressure on Iran after "terrorists" charge

 

The U.N. nuclear agency said on Tuesday Iran must address concerns about its suspected atom bomb research, one day after Tehran alleged that "terrorists" had infiltrated the organisation to sabotage the Islamic Republic's uranium enrichment plants.

 

Negotiators Meet in Bid to Revive Iran Talks

 

The top nuclear negotiators for Iran and the big powers met face to face for the first time in nearly three months on Tuesday, part of an effort to revive the stalled talks over Iran’s disputed uranium enrichment activities as new military tensions roil the Middle East.

 

Opinion: No more hedging, time to defuse Iranian nuclear issue

 

America has not resolved how to deal with Iran's nuclear program. As foreign policy issues soar in the next presidential race, it is time to search for substantive answers.

U.S. policies to contain Iran's nuclear program suffer from wishful thinking. Tightened sanctions and an open war option against Iran have failed to alter its behavior. They fail to grasp how fierce Iran is.

 

The Iranian Nuclear Imbroglio and the NAM Summit

 

Conclusion

The NAM Summit was, no doubt, an important occasion for Iran to showcase its diplomatic acceptability. On the future contours of the nuclear issue per se, it is important to note that the impact of forums such as the NAM Summit and its “consensus” formulations will likely be minimal. Iran can, however, continue to use NAM mechanisms like the Vienna Chapter or the NAM Caucus at the UNSC to more vigorously highlight its point of view. Iran’s ability to make those messages count—if push comes to shove during occasions like a future IAEA/UNSC vote—will, however, be constrained by the preference and /national positions of individual NAM countries such as India and Egypt, which have been highlighted above, and the complex policy determinants guiding their choices.

To be sure, NAM countries would only have to make a call if and when a vote is required to be taken at the IAEA or the UNSC on the Iran nuclear issue. This is, of course, not a given if there is indeed some forward movement in addressing concerns over the coming months. Also, the possibility of the pursuit of multilateral punitive measures is limited in the light of the likely strong opposition from countries such as Russia, China and India, among others, as well as the current policy stance of the US and EU, which are pursuing unilateral punitive measures to “force” such cooperation from Iran.

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I dilemmi atomici di Washington: frenare Teheran per convincere Tel Aviv

 

L'opinione comune all'interno dei circoli di potere israeliani è che, dovesse Obama venire rieletto, non vi sarebbe alcuna possibilità di ottenere l'appoggio di Washington. Sembra pertanto che, se bombardamento deve essere, questo sarà entro il 6 novembre, a campagna elettorale ancora aperta, approfittando del fatto che Obama avrebbe serie difficoltà a smarcarsi dall'accusa di immobi-lismo in politica estera rivoltagli dal Gop.

Vi è da dire però che la posizione di Netanyahu non appare al momento condivisa: molte sono infatti le resistenze allo strike preventivo all’interno dello stesso establishment militare10. Se queste resistenze dovessero venire superate, per Washington si aprirebbe un nuovo incubo mediorientale: non solo verrebbe ri-succhiata, suo malgrado, in una situazione di conflitto che non potrebbe essere più distante dalla sua attuale volontà, ma si tro-verebbe di fronte alla grande paura che da dieci anni a questa parte è tornata ad agitare i sonni di repubblicani e democratici: lo spettro del declino. Per quanto Romney possa puntare il dito con-tro l’immobilismo di Obama e fare la voce grossa contro il bad guy Ahmadinejad, la sensazione è che anche un suo eventuale man-dato sarebbe segnato da ristretti margini di manovra. La sensa-zione, dunque, è quella di un’inesorabile impotenza.

 

Who’s Sabotaging Iran’s Nuclear Program?

 

On Monday, Fereydoun Abbasi, Iran’s vice president and the chief of its nuclear-energy agency, disclosed that power lines between the holy city of Qom and the underground Fordow nuclear centrifuge facility were blown up with explosives on Aug. 17. He also said the power lines leading to Iran’s Natanz facilities were blown up as well. On the day after the power was cut off at Fordow, an inspector from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) asked to visit the facility.

...

In recent years, the West’s stealth war on Iran’s nuclear program has been waged through sabotage, industrial explosions, cyberviruses, and targeted killings. But until recently elements of the country’s civilian infrastructure were off limits in this not-so-secret shadow war.

... it is the first piece of evidence to suggest opponents of the Iranian program are targeting the country’s electrical grid and doing so on the ground. The U.S. military has studied Iran’s infrastructure closely. In 2009, a research lab attached to the U.S. joint staff and combatant commands known as the Joint Warfare Analysis Center discovered a weakness in Iran’s electrical grids that at the time would make it vulnerable to a cyberattack.[/u]

The attack described by Abbasi suggests, however, a physical explosion as opposed to a cyberattack. He specifically said the power lines from Qom to the Shahid Ali Mohammadi complex at Fordow “were cut using explosives.” In this case, special-operations forces on the ground in Iran would carry out such an attack, as opposed to cyberwarriors half a world away.

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  • 2 settimane dopo...

How to Help Iran Build a Bomb

 

Azerbaijan eyes aiding Israel against Iran

 

Israel's "go-it-alone" option to attack Iran's nuclear sites has set the Middle East on edge and unsettled its main ally at the height of a U.S. presidential election campaign.

...

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu exudes impatience, saying Tehran is barely a year from a "red line" for atomic capacity. Many fellow Israelis, however, fear a unilateral strike, lacking U.S. forces, would fail against such a large and distant enemy.

 

But what if, even without Washington, Israel were not alone?

 

Azerbaijan, the oil-rich ex-Soviet republic on Iran's far northern border, has, say local sources with knowledge of its military policy, explored with Israel how Azeri air bases and spy drones might help Israeli jets pull off a long-range attack.

 

Are Iran's nuclear sabotage fears justified?

 

German tech giant Siemens has rejected Iranian accusations that it is sabotaging the country's nuclear program by delivering booby-trapped technology. Observers say the charges could be justified.
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Iran displays new air defense system said to be made to confront US warplanes in Gulf

 

Iran on Friday displayed a new, all-Iranian-made air defense system, saying it was designed to confront American warplanes in case of a U.S. attack on the country.

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The semi-official Fars news agency said the Raad, or Thunder, is more advanced than its Russian predecessor and is designed to confront fighter jets, cruise missiles, smart bombs, helicopters and drones.

Tehran has tried to build a self-sufficient military program since 1992. More recently, Iran’s military leaders have said they believe future wars will be air- and sea-based and Tehran has sought to upgrade its air defense systems and naval power in anticipation of such a possibility.

...

“This system is built with the aim to confront American warplanes,” Hajizadeh said, adding that Raad carries missiles with a range of 50 kilometers (30 miles), capable of hitting targets at 22,000 meters (75,000 feet).

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Iran May Still Be Years Away From Nuclear-armed Missile

 

Iran already has enough low-enriched uranium for several atomic bombs if refined to a high degree but it may still be a few years away from being able to build a nuclear-armed missile if it decided to go down that path.

 

Israel’s warning last week that Iran will be on the brink of developing a nuclear weapon by mid-2013 seemed to refer to when it could have a sufficient stock of higher-grade uranium to make a quick dash to produce a bomb’s worth of weapon-grade material.

 

But, analysts say, Tehran would need time also for the technologically complicated task of fashioning highly refined uranium gas into a nuclear warhead small enough to fit on a missile - if it opts for such weapons of mass destruction.

 

Iran to enrich uranium to 60 percent if nuclear talks fail

 

Iran would enrich uranium up to 60 percent purity if negotiations with major powers over its nuclear program fail, an Iranian lawmaker said on Tuesday, in comments that may add to Western alarm about Iranian intentions.

 

Iran's FM: Israel Main Obstacle to Regional Stability, Security

 

Netanyahu Appears to Be Shifting Israel’s Iran Policy Toward More Sanctions

 

Study: Thousands Would Die in an Attack on Iran's Nuclear Sites By Golnaz Esfandiari

 

"According to our estimates, the number of casualties of the bombing of the four sites would be about 5,000 people," Semnani says. "If the bombing would include more than those four sites, then the immediate casualty would be up to 10,000 people." The report warns that the grim scenario could be magnified by the lack of readiness on the part of Iranian authorities, who have a poor record of disaster management and who lack the capacity to handle deadly radioactive fallout in the aftermath of a strike on its nuclear sites.

 

Netanyahu aligns with Obama on Iran

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Paranoia ....

 

Wary of Israel, Iran Is Said to Err in Strikes ....

 

The Iranian military was so apprehensive about the threat of an Israeli airstrike on its nuclear installations in 2007 and 2008 that it mistakenly fired on civilian airliners and, in one instance, on one of its own military aircraft, according to classified American intelligence reports.

Fonte .... http://www.nytimes.com/2012/10/03/world/middleeast/wary-of-israel-iran-is-said-to-blunder-in-strikes.html?_r=0

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Sì va beh Pinto, è il NY Times e non un fogliaccio qualunque, ma comunque l'articolo è pessimo in termini giornalistici.

In un testo relativamente breve si citano molto genericamente per ben sei volte presunte informazioni riservate:

 

according to classified American intelligence reports.

noted a heavily classified Pentagon intelligence report

according to a classified Pentagon assessment

according to a highly classified 2008 Pentagon report

a classified Pentagon report noted

a classified 2008 report by the Defense Intelligence Agency

 

senza mai presentarle. Dalle mie parti si chiama cercare di darsi autorevolezza senza averene le basi.

Prendiamolo con un grano di sale va ;)

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DM: Iran-Iraq Defense Cooperation to Boost Regional Security

 

Iranian Defense Minister, who is in Iraq for an official visit, underscored that the two neighboring countries' interactions in defense field will boost stability in the region.

"Cooperation between the two countries' military sectors will result in consolidation, stability and security of the region," Vahidi said in a meeting with his Iraqi counterpart Sadun Farhan al-Dulaymi in Baghdad on Wednesday.

He further stated that both Iranian and Iraqi leaders are determined to push the two countries towards an "all-out and balanced" expansion of bilateral ties, while emphasizing independence, national sovereignty and territorial integrity of each other's countries.

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Iran Offers Plan, Dismissed by U.S., on Nuclear Crisis

 

Iranian officials have begun to describe what they call a “nine-step plan” to defuse the nuclear crisis with the West by gradually suspending the production of the uranium that would be easiest for them to convert into a nuclear weapon.

But the plan requires so many concessions by the West, starting with the dismantling of all the sanctions that are blocking oil sales and setting off the collapse of the Iranian currency, that American officials have dismissed it as unworkable. Nonetheless, Iranian officials used their visit to the United Nations last week to attempt to drum up support, indicating that the country’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, is finally feeling the pressure.

“Within the intelligence community, I think it’s fair to say that there is split opinion about whether the upper level of the regime is getting seriously worried,” one senior intelligence official said when asked why the Iranians appeared to be backing away from their earlier stand that nothing would stop them from producing more medium-enriched uranium, which can be turned into bomb fuel in a matter of months.

“He’s erratic, and we’ve seen him walk up to the edge of deals before and walk away,” the official said, referring to Ayatollah Khamenei.

The Iranian plan is based on a proposal made to European officials in July. It essentially calls for a step-by-step dismantling of the sanctions while the Iranians end work at one of two sites where they are enriching what is known as “20 percent uranium.” Only when the Iranians reach step No. 9 — after all the sanctions are gone and badly depressed oil revenues have begun to flow again — would there be a “suspension” of the medium-enriched uranium production at the deep underground site called Fordow.

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With ‘sabotage’ charge, Iran takes hostile tone with U.N. watchdog

 

Iran is ratcheting up pressure on the U.N. agency responsible for overseeing the country’s nuclear program, accusing its inspectors of engaging in spying and sabotage and threatening to restrict U.N. access to Iranian nuclear facilities.

So strident has been Iran’s criticism of the International Atomic Energy Agency in recent weeks that some Western officials fear that the country is preparing to officially downgrade its cooperation with the nuclear watchdog. The Vienna-based agency is the only international body allowed to routinely visit Iran’s most sensitive nuclear installations.

...

IAEA officials initially rejected the allegations as absurd. Since then, the agency’s internal assessments have been unable to confirm that the attacks occurred at all, according to two European diplomats privy to the internal review.

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Where's Romney's contrast with Obama on Iran

 

 

 

Mitt Romney's Remarks at Virginia Military Institute

 

Wanted: a truly credible military threat to Iran

 

A centerpiece of the Romney campaign's argument that Obama has not been tough enough on Iran is that the president has not offered a credible military threat against the Iranians. Say what you will about the rest of Romney's remarks -- and broadly speaking, there was not much new in them except that for the first time, the Republican nominee has addressed foreign policy recently without tripping over one of his own misstatements -- but even some of the president's supporters have told me privately they wonder about his commitment and that of the U.S. military to taking action against Iran.
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ISIS Reports - Revisiting Danilenko and the Explosive Chamber at Parchin: A Review Based on Open Sources

 

With increased concern about Iran’s activities at the Parchin military site, ISIS revisits open source information on Vyacheslav Danilenko and his activities in Iran that could have supported Iran’s past nuclear weapons efforts involving high explosive testing at Parchin. Danilenko’s own writings support that he had considerable skills and knowledge gained from the Soviet nuclear weapons program. They also add credence to the IAEA’s concerns that the explosive chamber at Parchin could have contained high explosive tests relevant to a nuclear weapons development program. As part of this ISIS review, Mark Gorwitz has produced a separate, more extensive survey of Danilenko’s technical writings, and ISIS translated part of Danilenko’s 2003 book from Russian that has direct relevance to an explosive chamber at Parchin.

 

Think tank says Iran could make enough weapons-grade uranium for a nuke warhead in 2-4 months

 

Iran could produce enough weapons-grade uranium to arm a nuclear bomb within two to four months but would still face serious “engineering challenges” — and much longer delays — before it succeeds in making the other components needed for a functioning warhead, a respected U.S. think tank said Monday.

 

Sanctions are no good resolution to Iranian nuclear issue

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