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  1. Guarda caso, Obama sta cambiando la tattica al riguarda Iran:

     

    Washington to rethink policy within six weeks

    ...

    Amid growing signs that 2009 could be a critical year for diplomacy over Iran, the US informed Russia, China, Britain, France and Germany that it would complete a review of its policy on the Iranian nuclear programme within six weeks.

    ...

    Diplomats said Britain, France and Germany made clear to the US on Wednesday that they would like to see any fresh outreach to Iran taking place before the Iranian presidential election in June, and not afterwards.

     

    The Obama administration has not yet formally decided whether to reach out to Iran before June or afterwards. Some US diplomats fear a high profile outreach ahead of the elections could boost Mahmoud Ahmadi-Nejad, Iran’s hardline president.

    ...

     

    Saluti,

    Debugger

  2. Piccola domanda per debugger: quali sarebbero questi terribili crimini occidentali e americani?

    Specifico per Iran, da Wikipedia:

    From 1952-53, Prime Minister Mohammed Mossadeq who was appointed as Prime Minister by the Shah began a period of rapid power consolidation, centered on Mossadeq’s nationalization of the Anglo-Iranian Oil Company, now British Petroleum. Established by the British in the early 20th century, Anglo-Iranian Oil Company shared profits (85% British-15% Iran), but the company withheld their financial records from the Iranian government. By 1951 Iranian support for nationalization of the AIOC was intense and the Iranian Parliament unanimously agreed to nationalize its holding of, what was at the time, the British Empire’s largest company.

     

    The United States and Britain, through a now-admitted covert operation of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) called Operation Ajax, conducted from the US Embassy in Tehran, helped organize a coup to overthrow Moussadeq. The operation failed and the Shah fled to Italy. After organizing protests against Mosaddeq, a second operation was successful and the Shah returned from his brief exile.

     

    During his reign, the Shah received significant American support, frequently making state visits to the White House and earning praise from numerous American Presidents. The Shah's close ties to Washington and his bold agenda of rapidly Westernizing Iran soon began to infuriate certain segments of the Iranian population, especially the hardline Islamic conservatives.

     

    In 2000, U.S. Secretary of State Madeleine Albright apologies for U.S. involvement in the coup.[6]

     

     

    Puoi, Iran–Iraq War

     

    The United States materially supported Iraq during the Iran–Iraq War, starting around 1982. In 2000, U.S. Secretary of State Madeleine Albright expressed regret for that support.

     

    E puoi, di storia recente:

     

    Guerra contro Serbia:

    ...

    The proclaimed goal of the NATO operation was summed up by a NATO spokesperson as "Serbs out, peacekeepers in, refugees back". That is, Serbian troops would have to leave Kosovo and be replaced by international peacekeepers to ensure the Albanian refugees could return to their homes. However, the summary had an unfortunate double meaning which caused NATO considerable embarrassment after the war, when over 200,000 Serbs and other non-Albanian minorities fled or were expelled from the province. It was also suggested a small victorious war would help give NATO a new role. Terms like "humanitarian bombing" and "humanitarian war" were employed by the politicians.

    ...

    The campaign was initially designed to destroy Serbian air defences and high-value military targets. Bad weather hindered many sorties in the early stages. NATO had seriously underestimated Milošević's will to resist: few in Brussels thought the campaign would last more than a few days, and although the initial bombardment was more than just a pin-prick, it was nowhere near the concentrated bombardments seen in Baghdad in 1991 and 2003. On the ground, over 300,000 Kosovo Albanians had fled into neighboring Albania and Macedonia, with many thousands more displaced within Kosovo. By April, the United Nations was reporting that 850,000 people — the vast majority of them Albanians — were refugees that fled from Kosovo.

    ...

    The cause of the refugee exodus has been the subject of considerable controversy, not least because it formed the basis of United Nations war crimes charges against Slobodan Milošević and other officials responsible for directing the Kosovo conflict. The Serbian side and its Western supporters claimed the refugee outflows were caused by mass panic in the Kosovo Albanian population, and the exodus was generated principally by fear of NATO bombs.

    ...

    Civilian casualties

     

    Human Rights Watch reported between 489 and 528 civilians were killed in the ninety separate incidents in Operation Allied Force. Albanian refugees were among the victims. Almost two thirds (303 to 352) of the total registered civilian deaths occurred in twelve incidents where ten or more civilian deaths were confirmed. Almost half of the incidents resulted from attacks during daylight hours, when civilians could have been expected to be on the roads and bridges or in public buildings.

    ...

    Military casualties

    Operation Allied Force inflicted less damage on the Yugoslav military than originally thought due to the use of camouflage, which concealed vehicles and war techniques, and numerous easy-made decoys. Other misdirection techniques were used to disguise military targets. While NATO believed it had destroyed about 120 Serbian tanks during the conflict, only 14 were confirmed destroyed.

     

    E, in fine, Iraq "preventive" war. Di quale sapete tutti come stata venduta al pubblico.

     

    beh se tutti i russi fossero come te potrei dire che vi siete meritati tutti gli illuminati governi che si sono succeduti nel vostro paese, dai Romanov a Stalin.

    Non ho mai detto che i russi sono un popolo di angeli, i problemi che abbiamo avuti nel periodo 1990-2000 siamo meritati appieno. Ho scritto diversi volte nel questo forum che il reale declino della USSR e cominciato dalle anni 50, da rottura con la Cina e a causa di politica trotzkista (espansionista, populista e dogmatica) della PCUS di Hruscev e Brejnev(più moderato, pero).

     

     

    Saluti,

    Debugger.

  3. Già il fatto che consideri la crisi degli ostaggi come "problema ben meritato" fa capire che razza di persona sei, comunque se il popolo Iraniano è avanzato rispetto al resto del medio oriente il suo governo è composto da pazzi sanguinari rimasti a 10 secoli fa.

    Ovviamente per te son bravi e buoni perchè danno fastidio all'occidente, ma non mi aspetto certo da te un giudizio intelligente su libertà e democrazia.

    Se Stati Uniti non facevano un casino in giro di mondo, non sarebbe successo nulla. Loro sono colpevoli di crimini moolto più gravi. L'incidente con personale della ambasciata, che sono stati stati rilasciate illesi dopo un può, è un incidente minore, ma capisco che stato umiliante per Stati Uniti.

    E non concordo assolutamente che la dirigenza Iraniana sono inferiori in alcun modo a quella Occidentale, dopo di tutto il popolo ha il governo che merita.

    Saluti,

    Debugger.

  4. spero che la tua sia solo ironia, altrimenti si tratterebbe di una grave provocazione!

    Ciao Folgore,

     

    No sul serio, non capisco cosi tanta preoccupazione. Iran ha fatto un passo notevole in avanti è nessuno qui lo vede di un buon occhio.

    Guarda che Iran è un paese musulmano molto più civile e educato del resto di Mondo Arabo (a parte della Turchia che un paese turco e che nessuno vuole in EU), io lo preferisco a gran lunga dei regimi wahhabiti del resto. Mi dispiace che Stati Uniti hanno avuto i problemi con Iran in passato, ma questi problemi sono stati ben meritati. Tra altro Iran ha rapporti ottimi con alcuni paesi UE come Germania, Francia e forse Italia.

     

    Cordiali saluti,

    Debugger.

  5. Ciao tutti,

    volevo segnalare due articoli che, al mio avviso, toccano un punto cruciale della crisi:

     

    Fiscal expansions in submerging markets; the case of the USA and the UK

    ...

    During the decade leading up to the crisis, current account deficits increased steadily and became unsustainable. Strong domestic investment (much of it in unproductive residential construction) outstripped domestic saving. Government budget discipline dissipated; fiscal policy became pro-cyclical. Financial regulation and supervision was weak to non-existent, encouraging credit and asset price booms and bubbles. Corporate governance, especially but not only in the banking sector, became increasingly subservient to the interests of the CEOs and the other top managers.

     

    There was a steady erosion in business ethics and moral standards in commerce and trade. Regulatory capture and corruption, from petty corruption to grand corruption to state capture, became common place. Truth-telling and trust became increasingly scarce commodities in politics and in business life. The choice between telling the truth (the whole truth and nothing but the truth) and telling a deliberate lie or half-truth became a tactical option. Combined with increasing myopia, this meant that even reputational considerations no longer acted as a constraint on deliberate deception and the use of lies as a policy instrument.

    ...

     

    L'articolo merita di essere letto per intero.

     

    Altro articolo e relativo alla corruzione che regna nel WallStreet e organi che la devono sorvegliare:

    A king among clowns: Hand Markopolos regulatory job and watch Harry give 'em hell

    ...

    Just when you thought the financial crisis has created nothing but villains, along comes Markopolos, the bookish, humble whistleblower who courageously fought in vain for nearly a decade to get regulators to take a close look at Madoff.

    He took Capitol Hill by storm Wednesday, unleashing a double blow of written and spoken testimony that painted a devastating picture of the alleged Ponzi schemer Madoff and unleashed withering criticism of the Securities and Exchange Commission and Financial Industry Regulatory Authority.

    ...

    FINRA is "a corrupt organization" looking to protect its members, he said.

    Again, Markopolos demonstrated how Madoff's reliance on bullying and intimidation helped keep his scheme under wraps. See related commentary on Madoff's work culture

    Even as respectful as senators were of him, Markopolos' oozing integrity and class made the room feel as if he were the one sitting high on the dais. Markopolos' common sense contrasted the pompous grandstanding from congressmen such Alabama's Spencer Bachus, the apologies from Lori Richards, an SEC compliance director, and the excuses from Stephen Luparello, FINRA's interim CEO.

    ...

     

    Ragazzi, questo è molto più grande e devastante di Enron.

     

    Saluti,

    Debugger.

  6. ah è vero... la Polonia e l'Ukraina sono state minacciate dai rettiliani :asd:

    Minacciate? Ma quando?

     

    Comunque la situazione sta evolvendo rapidamente, proprio ieri la Russia insieme con 5 stati di Asia Centrale hanno firmato un accordo di partnership strategico militare. Ecco un link:

     

    CSTO – a NATO for the East?

    The members of the Collective Security Treaty Organisation - Russia and six neighbouring states – have agreed to set up a collective rapid reaction force to combat terrorism, military aggression, and drug trafficking.

     

    The decision was made during a CSTO summit in Moscow, attended by the leaders and foreign ministers of the member-states: Russia, Belarus and five countries in the Caucasus and Central Asia - Armenia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan and Tajikistan.

    ...

    Speaking at a media conference, Russian President Dmitry Medvedev said the new units “will not be less powerful than those of NATO”.

     

    He said: “the reason behind the creation of the collective forces of operative functioning is a considerable conflict potential which is accumulating in the CSTO zone”.

     

    Medvedev added that the force “should become an effective tool which would maintain security in the region”.

     

    Saluti,

    Debugger.

  7. Sei sicuro anche per ciò che riguarda l'Azerbaijan?

    riporto:

    Hai ragione, lo scambiato con accordo di Gazprom con Kazakistan.

    Comunque Azerbaijan, fino poco tempo fa, importava gas dalla Russia e non ha le riserve importanti da vendere.

     

    non come qualcuno che minaccia ritorsioni militari se gli stati vicini non si prostrano.

    E chi li minaccia? Sono accordi di mutuo beneficio.

  8. Perchè un paese con l'economia più debole dell'Italia non può avere velleità imperiali, e questa crisi glielo sta facendo capire.

    Potranno anche fare i galletti con tante repubbliche semidittatoriali che finiscono per stan, ma sul palcoscenico internazionale il peso che possono avere è sempre quello, anche alleandosi con gli stati canaglia (cosa che, alla fine dei conti, non conviene neanche a loro).

    Su carta magari è più debole, in realtà no. Ma abbiamo visto che la ricchezza virtuale vale fino ad un certo punto.

    E la Asia Centrale ne vale la pena, essendo una zona geo-strategica, tanta cara al vecchio Zbig Brzezinski, la mente di Obama in materia di affari internazionali.

  9. Diciamo per riportare questi paesi, di fatto, sotto il controllo Russo, anche se la crisi economica non gli permetterà di realizzare i piani neoimperiali che pensava fino ad appena sei mesi fa.

    E non credo che in molti vorrebbero, razionalmente, entrare nell'area del Rublo...

    E perché no? Ne Stati Uniti ne UE possono farsi le proposte migliori.

    Puoi i prezzi di greggio sono ai livelli del 2004, quando la Russia ha ripagata tutte sue debiti e ha ancora il bilancio commerciale in positivo.

    Puoi, culturalmente, siamo molto più vicini e convivevamo da secoli. I paesi centro asiatici preferiscano di averi i rapporti con Russi a gran lunga di Cinesi (che storicamente non avevano i rapporti buoni con popoli nomadi).

    Ormai il gioco è fatto, il mondo è già radicalmente cambiato dal 080808.

    Fin ora le vostre previsioni non sono per niente stati accurati.

     

    Debugger.

  10. Per la cronaca, è da un paio d'anni che dura questo tira-e-molla, non so cosa ha cambiato le carte in tavola, se questa è la volta buona...

    Non so se hai letto l'articolo che ho postato prima:

    Bakiyev’s announcement in Moscow of the base closure came shortly after the announcement of $2.15 billion in Russian loans, investments and other aid to Kyrgyzstan.

    Essendo un paese di 4 milioni abitanti con stipendio medio di 140$ questa cifra è veramente fa la differenza ( condizioni 0.75% per 40 anni, e prima rata tra 7 anni). La stessa cosa sta accadendo in Kazakistan ora, La Russia ha stanziata circa 40 miliardi per risanamento della sistema bancario di Kazakistan, che passa in mani dello Sberbank Russo. Un può prima Medvedev ha visitato Bielorussia, Uzbekistan e Azerbaijan (contattando tutto gas in anticipo per 10 anni) e facendo accordi simili.

    Tutto questo non per beneficenza, ma per ristabilire la sua zona di influenza e coinvolgere i paesi exUSSR nella zona valutaria di rublo.

     

    Saluti,

    Debugger.

  11. Salve ragazzi,

    presidente Kurmanbek Bakiev ha appeno fatto la dichiarazione di chiusura della base aerea Manas in Kirghizistan a Mosca. Era l'unica base aerea rimasta in zona.

     

    Kyrgyzstan says it will close U.S. air base

    MOSCOW — Kyrgyzstan’s president said Tuesday that his country is ending U.S. use of an air base that has been key to military operations in Afghanistan, Russian news agencies reported.

     

    The decision to end the U.S. use of Manas, just outside the Kyrgyz capital of Bishkek, could have potentially far-reaching consequences for U.S. and NATO operations in Afghanistan.

     

    Interfax and RIA-Novosti quoted Kurmanbek Bakiyev, on a visit to Moscow, as making the statement just minutes after Russia announced it was providing the poor Central Asian nation with billions of dollars in aid. Gen. David Petraeus, commander of U.S. forces in Afghanistan and Iraq, said during a trip to Central Asia last month that Manas air base would be key to plans to boost U.S. troop presence in Afghanistan by up to 30,000 soldiers in the coming months.

     

    Saluti,

    Debugger.

  12. Salve tutti,

    bella notizia:

    BBC:Iran launches its first satellite

    Iran has launched its first domestically made satellite into orbit, state media reports.

     

    TV commentary said Monday's night-time launch from a Safir-2 rocket was "another achievement for Iranian scientists under sanctions".

     

    The satellite was designed for research and telecommunications purposes, the television report said.

     

    Complimenti per ingeneri Iraniani, nonostante embargo hanno creato un vettore spaziale notevole.

    Cordiali saluti,

    Debugger.

  13. Salve ragazzi,

    notizie da Davos:

     

    FT.COM: Wen and Putin lecture western leaders

    Mr Putin mocked American delegates who had talked at last year’s Davos gathering about the US economy’s “fundamental stability and its cloudless prospects”, saying that “investment banks, the pride of Wall Street, have virtually ceased to exist”.

     

    Mr Wen made scathing comments about the “inappropriate macroeconomic policies” of some unnamed countries and the “unsustainable model of development characterised by prolonged low savings and high consumption”.

     

    He attacked financial institutions’ “blind pursuit of profit” and their “lack of self-discipline”.

    ...

    “What is discouraging is [barack] Obama’s statement that he is going to run a $1 trillion deficit for years to come. For us, that means that all the free liquidity in the world will run into American Treasury bills,” said Igor Yurgens, who heads a think tank advising Mr Medvedev.

     

    Mr Yurgens likened the policy to the “beggar thy neighbour” protectionist policies of the 1930s. “Of course, [Mr Obama] expects the Chinese or Russians to buy US Treasury bills. That is pretty selfish and philosophically it is protectionism,” he said.

     

    Edit: ho appena visto l'articolo su Repubblica, che merita di essere citato qua:

    Repubblica.it: Davos, la Cina sfida Obama, "La crisi, colpa degli Usa"

    ...

    Il premier cinese ha avuto parole severe contro "l'eccessiva espansione delle istituzioni finanziarie, il fallimento di chi doveva regolare i mercati, il prevalere della finanza sull'economia reale". Una frecciata particolare Wen l'ha scagliata contro l'America, le sue "politiche macroeconomiche sbagliate" che hanno provocato "insufficienza di risparmio e gravi squilibri mondiali". Putin ha rincarato la dose, sfoderando il suo sarcasmo feroce: "Un anno fa qui a Davos i leader americani continuavano a rassicurarci sulla stabilità del loro sistema. Oggi la maggior parte delle banche di Wall Street di fatto non esistono più, le loro perdite in dodici mesi hanno cancellato gli utili di 25 anni. Non troveremo la terapia giusta per uscirne, se non abbiamo chiare le cause di questa tempesta perfetta".

     

    Saluti,

    Debugger.

  14. Rublo sempre più giù

     

    E su questo fronte i russi sono arrivati a questa politica cambiando negli ultimi mesi radicalmente orientamento: prima hanno cercato di fare la cosa opposta, ovvero sostenere la moneta, poi, dopo aver bruciato decine di miliardi di dollari, si sono decisi appunto a far andare giù il rublo. Che, in queste condizioni, forse per loro è meglio.

     

    Anche euro, uk sterling, e tanti varie valute sono in forte flessione al rispetto del $. E' un fenomeno naturale della fuga dei capitali in $ verso la patria. Il dollaro è come una stella morente, che prima di diventare un nano bianco si espande a dismisura.

     

    Puoi, proprio oggi la Banca Centrale della Federazione Russa ha dichiarato la fine di politica di svalutazione del rublo. In prossime settimane/mesi il rublo riguadagna la buona parte del terreno, tornando ai livelli di 25-27 rubli/$. Forse domani ci saranno annunci nel media Europei, per il momento io non ho trovato la versione Inglese o Italiana.

     

    Saluti,

    Debugger.

  15. Guarda guarda ed io che pensavo che la crisi finanziaria riguardasse solo lo sporco mondo capitalista occidentale!!! :rotfl::rotfl::rotfl:

     

    Ma la neonata borsa RTS non conta nulla in sistema economica della Federazione Russa, può scomparire di tutto senza conseguenze. Invece quello che conta è il bilancio commerciale e le riserve monetarie. Che è rimasto forte.

     

    Saluti,

    Debugger.

  16. Aggiornamento su Ucraina,

    ecco interessante articolo che riassume bene i recenti sviluppi tra la Russia e Ucraine:

     

    Russia-Ukraine Gas War: Europe's Winter of Discontent

     

    Alcuni quote:

     

    In Soviet days, there was never a reliability problem in dealing with Moscow , so what’s the problem now that we are all one big, happy, capitalist family? Quite simply, Ukraine refuses to pay market prices for its own gas imports from Russia, and even stopped paying its gas debt, preferring to steal Europe ’s gas as it transits Ukrainian territory and create a reserve for its own use, a strange and shortsighted policy to say the least. Whereas in the past, world price fluctuations among the “free nations” were of little concern to Soviet planners, Russian politicians today very sensibly want to extract every last kopeck from trade partners. They certainly will not put up with blatant theft and nonpayment of debts.

     

    But Ukraine is the West’s “friend” and would-be member of NATO, while Russia is now the West’s “enemy”. Still, theft is theft, and the EU is beginning to sour on its eastern friend. Talks on a new association agreement with the Ukraine and on energy cooperation are now on hold. “This is about their credibility in terms of their entire relationship,” said an EU official. European Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso warned with uncharacteristic bluntness, “If Ukraine wants to be closer to the EU, it should not create any problems for gas to come to the EU.”

     

    ...

     

    Ukraine pleads its coffers are bare, which is no doubt true. Its industrial production sharply declined in November and GDP is forecast to contract by 10 per cent in 2009. It just accepted a $16.4 billion loan from the IMF. Chief Economist of the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development Erik Berglof recently warned that the IMF package might not suffice: “ Ukraine is heading toward a twin currency and banking sector crisis that could well bring down most of the economies of Eastern Europe .” However, the IMF, no friend of Russia, also argues that Ukraine could easily solve its debt by transferring partial ownership of the pipeline to Gazprom, the obvious solution, which Merkel surely approves of as well. Russia is a reliable partner as both she and the IMF know perfectly well, but justifiably balks at being robbed by an ungrateful neighbour.

     

    The missing link in this tedious and unnecessary “crisis” is the meeting Ukrainian President Viktor Yushchenko had with US officials in mid-December, where he signed a strategic partnership agreement that included a clause on energy cooperation. Ukraine ’s refusal to pay its debts or negotiate joint control of the pipeline with Russia were no doubt part of this agreement. This trail of events was not lost on the Russians. Medvedev openly blamed the US for the shutoff, saying Ukraine ’s actions were directed from Washington . Editor-in-chief of Russia in Global Politics Fedor Lukyanov said, “ Ukraine chose a tactic of deliberately creating a crisis through its rejection of talks and agreement, with the expectation that ultimately any major disruption of gas deliveries to Europe would hurt Gazprom’s reputation as a reliable energy partner. Everything that has happened after 31 December seems to me a delaying tactic. We are losing not a mere propaganda war but a real gas war. It is not accidental that countries that have excellent relations with Russia such as Greece, Hungary and Bulgaria, which are among our main European partners, are experiencing the worst difficulties.”

     

    Saluti,

    Debugger.

  17. Salve ragazzi,

    spero che avete passato bene il tempo delle feste e vacanze, anche se il nuovo anno non promette niente di buono.

    Ecco alcune notizie:

     

    Roubini: U.S. Credit Losses may reach $3.6 Trillion

    “I’ve found that credit losses could peak at a level of $3.6 trillion for U.S. institutions, half of them by banks and broker dealers,” Roubini said at a conference in Dubai today. “If that’s true, it means the U.S. banking system is effectively insolvent because it starts with a capital of $1.4 trillion. This is a systemic banking crisis.”

     

    Come si dice:

    l'Unione Sovietica crollata quando mancato il Socialismo, I Stati Uniti Capitalisti crolleranno per mancanza di Capitali.

     

    E Obama mi sembra paragonabile a Gorbachev, giovane, ambizioso, nero (Gorbachev aveva grossa macchia nera sulla testa), popolare, auspica perestroika (The Change we will need) e finirà molto male tra un può.

     

    Saluti,

    Debugger.

  18. And the use of nuclear weapons will grow increasingly likely, says the report, as rogue states and terrorist groups gain greater access to such

    Se scrivi solo quella parte di verità ...

    Mica le mass media pubblicano la verità, anche se esistesse? La mia verità e assai diversa dalla tua. E sarà America a usare le tactical nukes contro le "rogue" states, non in contrario.

     

    Saluti,

    Debugger.

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