Il giornalista Robert Wall fa il punto, su "Aviation Week & Space Technology", sull'attuale situazione del mercato dei caccia ....

 

 

Fighter Contenders See Multiple Export Opportunities

 

By Robert Wall - July 09, 2012

 

Source ....

 

With India, Japan and Switzerland having made their fighter decisions, the market is starting to turn to smaller campaigns as aircraft makers look to build backlogs to sustain production lines that may otherwise be nearing their end.

 

Competitions in South Korea and Brazil still attract industry players, but after those, the list of buyers thins out to countries with more limited budgets seeking to buy smaller numbers. That means manufacturers are starting to pay attention even to small countries like Botswana, and its eventual F-5 replacement needs.

 

That is not to say the incentive to promote high-end offerings is diminishing. Being able to deliver the most advanced systems possible remains an issue of more than bragging rights. That has Eurofighter officials eager to show that they are finally making progress in the increasingly important realm of active, electronically scanned array technology, where the European consortium has been trailing rivals.

 

The first Captor-E is due to be delivered in the second quarter of 2012, says Bob Mason, vice president for radar marketing and sales at Selex Galileo, one of the partners in the Euroradar consortium. The first Typhoon with the radar will fly next year. Most of the work so far has been financed by industry. A government-funded development contract is now expected in 2013. Industry still hopes to be able to field the system in 2015, although delays in the government's financing of the development program means the in-service date could slip into 2016.

 

The repositioner, designed to maintain IFF (identification friend or foe) polarity and increase the pilot's field of regard using the sensor, and upgraded back end with increased processing are now coming together, Mason says. The development is “low- risk,” he asserts. The basic radar will have air-to-air, air-to-ground and synthetic aperture radar modes.

 

The radar is intended for Tranche 3A fighters, but could be retrofit on Tranche 2 aircraft as well.

 

Pressure is mounting on Typhoon for sales in export markets, having already failed in Japan, India and Switzerland. South Korea, where the Typhoon is squaring off against the Lockheed Martin F-35 and Boeing F-15 Silent Eagle, is seen as a long shot, given the strong U.S. military presence on the peninsula. Malaysia is seen as a potential buyer, and the consortium also still hopes to make inroads in the United Arab Emirates, which has been in on-again, off-again talks with France to buy the Rafale.

 

For the Saab Gripen, last year's win in Switzerland and the subsequent commitment by Sweden to buy 60-80 of the new model E/F-standard aircraft has provided a shot in the arm, but export successes globally have been few.

 

Brazil could provide an important test case, opening the door not just to a new market but potentially to an entire region. Brazil's decision has been delayed numerous times, but Eddy de la Motte, vice president for marketing of the Swedish fighter, notes that “we get the feeling it is the end game.”

 

Saab could deliver the first Gripen E/F (also called the NG) fighter four years after a contract award, but it is still unclear if that is the schedule Brasilia will insist on, or whether it will join the combined Swiss/Swedish Gripen E/F development schedule, which would see the first fighter handed over in 2018.

 

The first Gripen E/F prototype is due to fly late next year if the Swiss and Swedish governments can agree on the development path forward. The effort would likely require some funding from Saab, too.

 

Meanwhile, the Selex Galileo Raven ES-05 active, electronically scanned array radar is to fly on the Gripen NG demonstrator soon, at which time the cockpit displays and sensor will be put through their paces.

 

The Swedish government has an offer on the table for potential export buyers, to accelerate its purchase if another country wants the Gripen E/F early but does not want to be the lead buyer. That offer remains open, de La Motte says.

 

A win in Brazil could open the door to other fighter deals in South America, adds Frederik Gustafson, regional director for Gripen exports in the Americas. “There is a huge need for new fighters in the region and the economies are growing,” he told reporters on the sidelines of the Aerospace Forum Sweden 2012. There are more than a handful of countries that are looking to buy in the next five years, he added.

 

But that is not the only region where Saab is working to meet its target of selling 300 fighters over the next decade. In Thailand, were it has already sold 12 Gripens (six are delivered with six to follow next year), it is hoping for additional deals. Malaysia, the Philippines, Indonesia and, “in a couple of years” Vietnam may also offer opportunities, de La Motte says.

 

Efforts also continue to extend the fighter lease deal with the Czech Republic and secure orders in Bulgaria, Romania, Croatia and Slovakia. Gripen also still hopes to convince Denmark and the Netherlands to defect from the F-35A Joint Strike Fighter program.

 

This year, the Czech Republic is due to make a decision on whether it will extend the fighter lease beyond 2015. The Czech air force currently operates 12 single-seat and two dual-seat Gripens under a lease deal that expires in 2015. The goal is to complete negotiations this year on how to preserve fighter capability.

 

The leading candidate, preferred by the air force, is an extension of the lease deal with the Swedish government, with 5-, 10- and 20-year options being discussed (the 10-year option is seen as the most likely). A decision should be taken this year to allow time for a fall-back plan in case the lease deal does not materialize, says air force chief Brig. Gen. Jiri Verner.

 

Securing additional orders is critical not only for European manufacturers, seeing a potential end of their production lines in this decade in the absence of additional orders. Boeing is looking to both additional F/A-18 purchases by the U.S. and fighter export campaigns to sustain its two fighter production lines—the F-15 and F/A-18—beyond their currently expected lives.

 

The current multi-year program with the U.S. Navy runs until about 2015, but Dennis Muilenburg, CEO of Boeing Defense, Space & Security (DSS), sees scope for sales of additional EA-18Gs to the Pentagon to extend production. “We see an opportunity domestically for the joint electronic attack requirement,” he tells reporters. But whether there is enough demand for a fourth multi-year contract is unclear he notes.

 

While Muilenburg acknowledges that the existing backlog sees pressure on the F-15 and F/A-18E/F production lines in the 5-10-year time frame, he argues that both products have shown resilience and been able to extend their lives.

 

Several important decisions affecting exports loom in the coming months. Before year-end, Brazil is to announce its F-X2 fighter decision where the F/A-18E/F is competing against the Gripen NG and the Dassault Rafale. South Korea is also expected to make its choice between the F-15, Lockheed Martin's F-35 and the Typhoon.

 

Boeing also foresees more clarity to emerge on Australia's plans in the third quarter. That is when a decision is likely on the mix between the F-35s and F/A-18Fs and whether additional Super Hornet purchases will be made, says Mark Kronenberg, vice president- international business development at Boeing DSS. “I don't think they are going to walk away completely from the F-35, but the mix is a factor,” he argues.

 

Boeing sees Denmark as an opportunity for the F/A-18, as well as some nervousness among F-35 buyers that could generate opportunities, Kronenberg says.

 

The Middle East is viewed as another potential hot spot for deals, with Qatar and Kuwait seen as potential F/A-18E/F buyers. Kronenberg notes that “in Kuwait you are starting to see movement I had not seen two years ago.”

 

The United Arab Emirates might be an opportunity for Boeing, but Kronenberg sees that as an F-15 market.

 

Extending the production lines is vital for Boeing to maintain skills until future programs—FA-XX for the U.S. Navy and F-X for the U.S. Air Force—advance beyond the concept study phase. However, Muilenburg notes that skills will also be sustained through other efforts, including work in unmanned aircraft and the USAF's next-generation bomber effort.

 

Il precedente post era stato caricato due volte ...

Modificato 19 gennaio 20188 anni da TT-1 Pinto

L'acquisto di 16 F-16 Block 70 da parte della Royal Bahraini Air Force consente a LM di mantenere aperta la linea di produzione del velivolo ...

Bahrain is set to become the first country in the region to operate Lockheed’s F-16 Block 70 aircraft, in a move that will boost the Falcon’s production line.

Last November, Vice President Mike Pence announced the signature of a deal for the sale of 16 F-16s worth over $2.3 billion to the Gulf country, considering it a “big boost for American jobs and security.”

“We are pleased the Kingdom of Bahrain and the U.S. government have agreed to move forward with the sale of F-16 Block 70 aircraft for the Royal Bahraini Air Force,” said Rick Groesch, regional vice president of international business development at Lockheed Martin Aeronautics.

Fonte: defensenews.com ... Lockheed keeps F-16 production line going with Bahrain deal ...

La stipula di questo contratto pone dunque fine alla prospettata possibilità dell'adozione dell'Eurofighter Typhoon da parte della monarchia araba ...

However, with this deal, one Bahraini military official confirmed the country’s withdrawal from the Eurofighter Typhoon program.

The European fighter was one of the main alternatives competing to join Bahrain’s air force, according to him.

“The decision is set and done. The Royal Bahraini Air Force won’t be operating the Typhoon anytime soon,” he said.

“With a total of 16 brand new advanced F-16s and 20 upgraded Block 40 F-16 aircraft to the V configuration, the air force lost its need to operate a new kind of aircraft.”

L’F-16 continua a beneficiare dei frutti di un progetto azzeccato e flessibile, che ha consentito una progressiva ed incessante evoluzione del mezzo a forza di piccoli o relativamente piccoli aggiornamenti e miglioramenti che si sono potuti implementare nel corso della sua pluridecennale produzione.
Poter piazzare sul mercato sia il sostituto che il sostituito è un gran punto a favore di LM che ha basi solide e un futuro garantito.

 

Avere l’aereo in produzione a ritmi sostenuti consente ottimizzazioni e razionalizzazioni sia produttive che di prodotto che alla fine portano ad un mezzo affidabile e al tempo stesso economico. Il famoso rapporto qualità prezzo che gli Europei, dividendosi 3 Eurocanard e 6 linee produttive (4 per Eurofighter) si possono solo scordare e a cui volenti o nolenti tenderà anche l’F-35, a dispetto della sua complessità rispetto all’F-16.

 

L’autarchia in piccola scala o i consorzi con accordi e quote di lavoro decise col bilancino per dar qualcosa a tutti (compresa una linea produttiva stitica), sono buone per assicurarsi aerei e lavoro in un contesto locale, ma, quando si va sul mercato estero, chi non ha questa zavorra ferraginosa sul groppone può anche farti una bella pernacchia vendendo un caccia nato 40 anni fa.

 

Serviva più dinamismo e meno ottusità localista e nazionalista alla vecchia Europa, ma questo è il momento meno favorevole per intravedere miglioramenti nel futuro.

Sukhoi Su-30 ... prossimo cliente il Myanmar ...

Myanmar is to obtain six Sukhoi Su-30 fighters under a deal signed during a visit by Russia's defence minister to the Southeast Asian nation.

A report by Russia's TASS news agency (*) quotes deputy defence minister Lt. Gen. Alexander Fomin as saying that the aircraft will be the main fighter aircraft of the Myanmar air force.

Fonte: flightglobal.com ... ​Myanmar signs order for six Su-30s ...

(*) ... Moscow to deliver six Su-30 fighter aircraft to Myanmar ...

 

Sukhoi Su-30 ... prossimo cliente il Myanmar ...

Fonte: flightglobal.com ... ​Myanmar signs order for six Su-30s ...

(*) ... Moscow to deliver six Su-30 fighter aircraft to Myanmar ...

 

Si sa se sostituiranno tutta la linea di volo basandosi su JF-17 e Su-30 o manterranno anche MIG-29 e/o i piu vecchi J7 e compagnia?

Canada ...

... Boeing sfoglia la margherita ...

 

“We continue to believe that the Super Hornet is the low-risk, low-cost approach that has all the advanced capabilities the Royal Canadian Air Force needs now and well into the future,” Boeing says.

“We will evaluate our participation in Canada’s Future Fighter Capability Project (FFCP) after the Government of Canada outlines the FFCP procurement approach, requirements and evaluation criteria,” Boeing adds.

Fonte: flightglobal.com ... Boeing still evaluating whether to bid for Canadian fighter contract ...

Si sa se sostituiranno tutta la linea di volo basandosi su JF-17 e Su-30 o manterranno anche MIG-29 e/o i piu vecchi J7 e compagnia?

 

Al momento è difficile dirlo ... a causa dell'attuale fase di transizione riguardante le forze armate del paese ...

Comunque ... se guardi la consistenza della Forza Aerea ti potrai rendere conto che gli ordini di JF-17 e Su-30 sono, almeno per ora, abbastanza esigui ... ragion per cui penso sia lecito ipotizzare che vi sarà ancora, per alcuni anni, una sorta di 'convivenza' con i vecchi modelli attualmente operativi ...

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Myanmar_Air_Force#Current_inventory

 

Qualche ulteriore informazione in merito ...

 

https://thediplomat.com/2017/12/myanmar-military-modernization-in-the-spotlight-amid-air-force-anniversary/

 

https://thediplomat.com/2018/01/what-did-russias-defense-ministers-myanmar-visit-accomplish/

 

Al momento è difficile dirlo ... a causa dell'attuale fase di transizione riguardante le forze armate del paese ...

Comunque ... se guardi la consistenza della Forza Aerea ti potrai rendere conto che gli ordini di JF-17 e Su-30 sono, almeno per ora, abbastanza esigui ... ragion per cui penso sia lecito ipotizzare che vi sarà ancora, per alcuni anni, una sorta di 'convivenza' con i vecchi modelli attualmente operativi ...

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Myanmar_Air_Force#Current_inventory

 

Qualche ulteriore informazione in merito ...

 

https://thediplomat.com/2017/12/myanmar-military-modernization-in-the-spotlight-amid-air-force-anniversary/

 

https://thediplomat.com/2018/01/what-did-russias-defense-ministers-myanmar-visit-accomplish/

interessante

leggevo poi che comunque li in zona non e che la Birmania abbia attriti o paesi limitrofi pericolosi, ce il Vietnam con una piu che discreta forza aerea (una 40ina di Su-30 piu dei vecchi Su-22 e una 20ina di elicotteri da attacco) e la Malesia con Su-30, F/A18 e MIG29 vari

ma nessuno credo sia una minaccia per loro quindi mi sa che che i vecchi Jx verranno rottamati e in base alle condizioni i MIG29 potrebbero rimanere magari in versione di "rappresentanza"

Te l'ho già detto ... trovandosi le Forze Armate di tale paese in una fase di transizione ... qualsiasi eventualità è da considerarsi possibile ...

Non credo comunque che possa convenire il costoso mantenimento in servizio di velivoli (probabilmente tuttora prestanti) soltanto con mansioni di 'rappresentanza' ...

Una cosa del genere, con "rappresentanza" intendo velivoli che potrebbe essere operativi ma che per varie ragioni non vengono aggiornati o sistemati alla buona per poter essere ripresi dagli hangar e con qualche aggiustatina pronti al volo

Polemiche Russia-USA sulla vendita dei caccia Su-30 al Myanmar ...

 

http://tass.com/defense/987050

 

 

Il Portogallo lascia gli Alpha Jet.

 

http://www.blogbeforeflight.net/2018/01/portuguese-air-force-alpha-jet-farewell-ceremony-last-flight.html

 

Che dite : ci sono possibilità per il 346 ( magari in versione FA ) ?

Il Portogallo lascia gli Alpha Jet.

 

http://www.blogbeforeflight.net/2018/01/portuguese-air-force-alpha-jet-farewell-ceremony-last-flight.html

 

Che dite : ci sono possibilità per il 346 ( magari in versione FA ) ?

 

Difficile dirlo ... comunque ... secondo Jane's giusto un paio di mesi fa ...

 

The Portuguese Air Force has produced a study that includes several options for conducting the roles hitherto carried out by the Alpha Jet A, which are being considered before a decision is made.

 

https://archive.is/6pYbU

 

Non credo poi navighino nell'oro ... e il 346 non mi sembra un aereo a basso costo ...

Singapore ... il capo della RSAF (Republic of Singapore Air Force), intervistato da FlightGlobal si è dimostrato molto prudente circa l'eventuale futuro acquisto di F-35 da parte del suo paese ...

FlightGlobal: What is the RSAF’s current thinking on the Lockheed Martin F-35?

Singapore has expressed interest before, but this seems to have gone quiet over the last two years.

Tan: As a small country with no strategic depth, Singapore will always need superior air capabilities to protect its interests and borders.

Hence, we have been taking a long-term perspective in our planning to ensure that we will always have a capable fighter fleet to defend Singapore’s skies.

The RSAF’s F-5s have been drawn down after reaching the end of their operational lifespan and the F-16s have several key components that are facing obsolescence.

After careful studies, we have concluded that the most cost-effective approach will be to upgrade the F-16s to extend its lifespan, while evaluating the F-35 as a potential candidate to strengthen our fighter force and maintain our combat edge into the future.

MINDEF is still evaluating the F-35 JSF.

Decisions to acquire new and advanced capabilities are important and will be made after careful and thorough evaluation.

We have to ensure that our investment not only meets our defence requirements, but is also cost-effective.

Fonte: flightglobal.com ... SINGAPORE: RSAF chief discusses future capabilities ...

Belgio ... Dassault rafforza la sua posizione ...

Plutôt discret jusqu’ici, Dassault a frappé fort ce 13 février à Bruxelles, dans le marché qui l’oppose à Lockheed et Eurofighter pour le remplacement des F-16 belges par 34 appareils de nouvelle génération.

Devant la presse et dans le cadre du très select cercle néerlandophone De Warande, Éric Trappier, Président-Directeur général de Dassault Aviation, a signé pour le GIE Rafale International, 13 accords de coopération avec des industriels belges dans le cadre de la proposition de partenariat stratégique franco-belge relatif à l'aviation de combat.

--- --- ---

Au cours de la cérémonie de signature qui a réuni les dirigeants de plus d'une douzaine d'entreprises, dont Sabca, Safran Aero Booster, Thales Belgium, Asco, Esterline, Flying Group, DronePort, ie-net, JDC Innovation, AKKA Belgium, Amia Systems, Ilias et Alt-F1, Éric Trappier a expliqué que ces accords seraient suivis de plusieurs dizaines d'autres accords similaires, de manière à atteindre les objectifs que les industriels de l'aéronautique français se sont fixés pour les retours industriels et sociétaux de l'offre faite à la Belgique dans le cadre du remplacement de ses avions de combat F 16.

Fonte: air-cosmos.com ... Dassault frappe un grand coup en Belgique ...

F-35B ... ultime dal Giappone ...

Japan is considering procuring the short take-off and vertical-landing (STOVL) variant of the Lockheed Martin F-35 Lightning II Joint Strike Fighter (JSF) to improve the defence capabilities of its remote islands, according to a 12 February report by The Yomiuri Shimbun newspaper (*).

The Japan Air Self-Defense Force (JASDF) is mulling operating the F-35B from about fiscal year 2026 (FY 2026) from commercial airports located on these islands, said the media report, adding that the government in Tokyo is planning to indicate the number of aircraft to be procured in the next Medium Term Defense Programme, which is to be compiled at the end of 2018.

Fonte: jane's.com ... Japan eyes acquiring F-35Bs for defence of remote islands, says report ...

(*) ... the-japan-news.com ... F-35B jets eyed to defend remote isles / Fighters also mulled for MSDF’s Izumo ship ...

Si sa qualcosa sui movimenti della Svizzera? Pare abbiano messo a terra gli F/A18

Si sa qualcosa sui movimenti della Svizzera?

Pare abbiano messo a terra gli F/A18

 

Non tutti ... soltanto cinque ...

 

https://www.swissinfo.ch/eng/out-of-action_more-fighter-jets-grounded-after-cracks-found/43872332

 

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-swiss-jets/swiss-air-force-grounds-five-hornet-fighter-jets-idUSKBN1FQ1CB

Grazie delle info

Comunque pare che non abbiano ancora particolare fretta per la scelta dei sostituti

Grazie delle info

Comunque pare che non abbiano ancora particolare fretta per la scelta dei sostituti

 

Le loro procedure di acquisizione sono lunghe e complesse e, solitamente, portano ad un referendum popolare che, in teoria, potrebbe anche bocciare la scelta ...

 

In questa discussione, se già non la hai letta, troverai qualche altra informazione ...

 

http://www.aereimilitari.org/forum/topic/18186-ch-nuova-valutazione/

Udite... udite ...

 

Belgium has shown interest in the Rafale fighter jet for maritime use, said Jean-Jacques Bridey, chairman of the French Defence Committee of the lower house National Assembly.

“The Belgians are interested in the Rafale,” he told The Defense Journalists Association.

“Why? If they buy the Rafale, it will be the naval Rafale.”

Belgium is interested in the aircraft’s ability to land on the French aircraft carrier Charles de Gaulle, which would boost Belgium’s deployment capacity, Bridey said.

“This is a seaborne airbase, after all,” he added.

 

https://www.defensenews.com/naval/2018/02/20/belgium-wants-to-buy-rafale-fighters-for-naval-capability-says-french-lawmaker/

 

Ammesso che tutto ciò risponda al vero e, alla fine, si concretizzi ... mi sto chiedendo se la CdG non sia una portaerei troppo piccola per poter ospitare anche un contingente di volo non francese ...

 

 

 

Tornando alla Svizzera ...

 

Saab tuttora fiduciosa nella possibilità di venderle il Gripen E ...

 

Noting that Saab is eyeing potential opportunities to sell the Gripen E to additional nations, including Canada, Finland and Switzerland, he says: "Our performance in delivery will also prove that we have a ready product."

 

Fonte: flightglobal.com ... https://www.flightglobal.com/news/articles/gripen-e-delivery-schedule-on-target-says-saab-boss-446054/

 

Le loro procedure di acquisizione sono lunghe e complesse e, solitamente, portano ad un referendum popolare che, in teoria, potrebbe anche bocciare la scelta ...

 

In questa discussione, se già non la hai letta, troverai qualche altra informazione ...

 

http://www.aereimilitari.org/forum/topic/18186-ch-nuova-valutazione/

Lo avevo letto per la storia del lavoro nel Week end nelle basi aeree :/

 

Comunque alla fine le scelte che possono fare son sempre quelle:

Nuovi F/A 18, gripen, eurofighter o rafale

Credo che dipenderà dalle offerte economiche e se glieli lasciano produrre in loco

O, magari, lo F-35 ... se la decisione si dovesse allontanare troppo nel tempo e i caccia di 4^ generazione già presi in considerazione venissero giudicati ormai troppo 'datati' ...

 

Non a caso LM sta già corteggiando la Confederazione ... https://www.reuters.com/article/us-airshow-australia-lockheed/lockheed-says-in-talks-with-spain-belgium-others-on-buying-f-35s-idUSKBN16A0DW

 

Solo che, in caso di una scelta in tale direzione, c'è il rischio di una bocciatura nell'inevitabile referendum popolare ... causa eccessivo costo ...

Si non ho messo nella lista l'F35 per il costo alla fine non credo che se il budget e ancora attorno ai 2-3 miliardi di euro se ne possano permettere proprio di prenderne una 20ina che mi sembra il requisito minimo per sostituire tutti gli F/A18 (non parlo poi dei vecchi F5) e non credo che si possa aprire una nuova linea di produzione in Svizzera e per pochi aeromobili

Più plausibile per me che si vada di nuovo coi gripen E che sono buoni aerei e con costi di gestione non elevati (anche se pare vengano a costare sui 100 milioni di dollari al pezzo se ricordo bene per cui non sono proprio economici)

Oppure non so qualche ipotesi più particolare se puntano ad un mix fra nuovo e usato l'eurofighter e interessante visto che fra Italia, Austria, Germania, UK e Spagna di sicuro qualcuno da reperire alla svolta lo trova

Altre ipotesi "esotiche" tipo F15, mig-35 o caccia indiani/pachistani/cinesi mi sento di escluderle