Il giornalista Robert Wall fa il punto, su "Aviation Week & Space Technology", sull'attuale situazione del mercato dei caccia ....

 

 

Fighter Contenders See Multiple Export Opportunities

 

By Robert Wall - July 09, 2012

 

Source ....

 

With India, Japan and Switzerland having made their fighter decisions, the market is starting to turn to smaller campaigns as aircraft makers look to build backlogs to sustain production lines that may otherwise be nearing their end.

 

Competitions in South Korea and Brazil still attract industry players, but after those, the list of buyers thins out to countries with more limited budgets seeking to buy smaller numbers. That means manufacturers are starting to pay attention even to small countries like Botswana, and its eventual F-5 replacement needs.

 

That is not to say the incentive to promote high-end offerings is diminishing. Being able to deliver the most advanced systems possible remains an issue of more than bragging rights. That has Eurofighter officials eager to show that they are finally making progress in the increasingly important realm of active, electronically scanned array technology, where the European consortium has been trailing rivals.

 

The first Captor-E is due to be delivered in the second quarter of 2012, says Bob Mason, vice president for radar marketing and sales at Selex Galileo, one of the partners in the Euroradar consortium. The first Typhoon with the radar will fly next year. Most of the work so far has been financed by industry. A government-funded development contract is now expected in 2013. Industry still hopes to be able to field the system in 2015, although delays in the government's financing of the development program means the in-service date could slip into 2016.

 

The repositioner, designed to maintain IFF (identification friend or foe) polarity and increase the pilot's field of regard using the sensor, and upgraded back end with increased processing are now coming together, Mason says. The development is “low- risk,” he asserts. The basic radar will have air-to-air, air-to-ground and synthetic aperture radar modes.

 

The radar is intended for Tranche 3A fighters, but could be retrofit on Tranche 2 aircraft as well.

 

Pressure is mounting on Typhoon for sales in export markets, having already failed in Japan, India and Switzerland. South Korea, where the Typhoon is squaring off against the Lockheed Martin F-35 and Boeing F-15 Silent Eagle, is seen as a long shot, given the strong U.S. military presence on the peninsula. Malaysia is seen as a potential buyer, and the consortium also still hopes to make inroads in the United Arab Emirates, which has been in on-again, off-again talks with France to buy the Rafale.

 

For the Saab Gripen, last year's win in Switzerland and the subsequent commitment by Sweden to buy 60-80 of the new model E/F-standard aircraft has provided a shot in the arm, but export successes globally have been few.

 

Brazil could provide an important test case, opening the door not just to a new market but potentially to an entire region. Brazil's decision has been delayed numerous times, but Eddy de la Motte, vice president for marketing of the Swedish fighter, notes that “we get the feeling it is the end game.”

 

Saab could deliver the first Gripen E/F (also called the NG) fighter four years after a contract award, but it is still unclear if that is the schedule Brasilia will insist on, or whether it will join the combined Swiss/Swedish Gripen E/F development schedule, which would see the first fighter handed over in 2018.

 

The first Gripen E/F prototype is due to fly late next year if the Swiss and Swedish governments can agree on the development path forward. The effort would likely require some funding from Saab, too.

 

Meanwhile, the Selex Galileo Raven ES-05 active, electronically scanned array radar is to fly on the Gripen NG demonstrator soon, at which time the cockpit displays and sensor will be put through their paces.

 

The Swedish government has an offer on the table for potential export buyers, to accelerate its purchase if another country wants the Gripen E/F early but does not want to be the lead buyer. That offer remains open, de La Motte says.

 

A win in Brazil could open the door to other fighter deals in South America, adds Frederik Gustafson, regional director for Gripen exports in the Americas. “There is a huge need for new fighters in the region and the economies are growing,” he told reporters on the sidelines of the Aerospace Forum Sweden 2012. There are more than a handful of countries that are looking to buy in the next five years, he added.

 

But that is not the only region where Saab is working to meet its target of selling 300 fighters over the next decade. In Thailand, were it has already sold 12 Gripens (six are delivered with six to follow next year), it is hoping for additional deals. Malaysia, the Philippines, Indonesia and, “in a couple of years” Vietnam may also offer opportunities, de La Motte says.

 

Efforts also continue to extend the fighter lease deal with the Czech Republic and secure orders in Bulgaria, Romania, Croatia and Slovakia. Gripen also still hopes to convince Denmark and the Netherlands to defect from the F-35A Joint Strike Fighter program.

 

This year, the Czech Republic is due to make a decision on whether it will extend the fighter lease beyond 2015. The Czech air force currently operates 12 single-seat and two dual-seat Gripens under a lease deal that expires in 2015. The goal is to complete negotiations this year on how to preserve fighter capability.

 

The leading candidate, preferred by the air force, is an extension of the lease deal with the Swedish government, with 5-, 10- and 20-year options being discussed (the 10-year option is seen as the most likely). A decision should be taken this year to allow time for a fall-back plan in case the lease deal does not materialize, says air force chief Brig. Gen. Jiri Verner.

 

Securing additional orders is critical not only for European manufacturers, seeing a potential end of their production lines in this decade in the absence of additional orders. Boeing is looking to both additional F/A-18 purchases by the U.S. and fighter export campaigns to sustain its two fighter production lines—the F-15 and F/A-18—beyond their currently expected lives.

 

The current multi-year program with the U.S. Navy runs until about 2015, but Dennis Muilenburg, CEO of Boeing Defense, Space & Security (DSS), sees scope for sales of additional EA-18Gs to the Pentagon to extend production. “We see an opportunity domestically for the joint electronic attack requirement,” he tells reporters. But whether there is enough demand for a fourth multi-year contract is unclear he notes.

 

While Muilenburg acknowledges that the existing backlog sees pressure on the F-15 and F/A-18E/F production lines in the 5-10-year time frame, he argues that both products have shown resilience and been able to extend their lives.

 

Several important decisions affecting exports loom in the coming months. Before year-end, Brazil is to announce its F-X2 fighter decision where the F/A-18E/F is competing against the Gripen NG and the Dassault Rafale. South Korea is also expected to make its choice between the F-15, Lockheed Martin's F-35 and the Typhoon.

 

Boeing also foresees more clarity to emerge on Australia's plans in the third quarter. That is when a decision is likely on the mix between the F-35s and F/A-18Fs and whether additional Super Hornet purchases will be made, says Mark Kronenberg, vice president- international business development at Boeing DSS. “I don't think they are going to walk away completely from the F-35, but the mix is a factor,” he argues.

 

Boeing sees Denmark as an opportunity for the F/A-18, as well as some nervousness among F-35 buyers that could generate opportunities, Kronenberg says.

 

The Middle East is viewed as another potential hot spot for deals, with Qatar and Kuwait seen as potential F/A-18E/F buyers. Kronenberg notes that “in Kuwait you are starting to see movement I had not seen two years ago.”

 

The United Arab Emirates might be an opportunity for Boeing, but Kronenberg sees that as an F-15 market.

 

Extending the production lines is vital for Boeing to maintain skills until future programs—FA-XX for the U.S. Navy and F-X for the U.S. Air Force—advance beyond the concept study phase. However, Muilenburg notes that skills will also be sustained through other efforts, including work in unmanned aircraft and the USAF's next-generation bomber effort.

 

Il Belgio ... e la ricerca per il nuovo caccia che dovrà sostituire gli F-16 ...

Dopo Boeing ... anche Saab saluta e se ne va ...

Sweden will not put forward Saab’s Gripen E for Belgium’s fighter contest, the country’s defense ministry announced Monday.

In a notice explaining the decision, the Swedish Defense Materiel Administration, or FMV, said the government was not prepared to provide the operational support required by the Belgian government, which is seeking out 34 new fighters to replace its fleet of 54 F-16s.

“This would require a Swedish foreign policy and political mandate that does not exist today. Therefore Sweden and the FMV choose not to submit an answer to the Belgian request,” the notice stated.

Fonte: DefenseNews ... Sweden pulls out of Belgian fighter battle ...

FMV ... Sweden declines Belgian RFGP for new fighter procurement ...

Ora che l'alternativa "low cost" si è chiamata fuori direi che la scelta F-35 è pressoché scontata: visto che Lightning2, Typhoon e Rafale hanno un costo unitario pressoché identico, tanto vale sostituire gli F-16 con qualcosa di veramente nuovo e con una "libera interpretazione migliorata" del Falcon stesso.

Ora che l'alternativa "low cost" si è chiamata fuori direi che la scelta F-35 è pressoché scontata: visto che Lightning 2, Typhoon e Rafale hanno un costo unitario pressoché identico, tanto vale sostituire gli F-16 con qualcosa di veramente nuovo e con una "libera interpretazione migliorata" del Falcon stesso.

 

Ci si starebbe dunque ormai avviando ad una situazione analoga a quella del 1975 ... quando venne stipulato il cosiddetto 'contratto del secolo' che vide quattro paesi NATO acquistare gli allora nuovi F-16 ...

 

... http://www.nytimes.com/1975/07/27/archives/the-f16-and-how-it-won-europe-the-f16-and-how-it-won-europes-orders.html ...

 

... https://www.flightglobal.com/FlightPDFArchive/1975/1975%20-%201645.PDF ...

Venghino Signori, venghino ... a comprare da noi ...

 

Fonte: AFA ... When “Buy American” Makes Sense Abroad ...

 

 

Beh, in fin dei conti almeno in campo aeronautico è difficile dargli torto. Poi è chiaro che, per una nazione, le scelte di sistemi d'arma di origine estera sono sempre condizionate in maniera determinante da considerazioni di carattere politico. Acquistare all'estero vuol dire quasi sempre legarsi mani e piedi a chi vende il materiale.

La Russia si becca qualche miliardo di metri cubi del tanto discusso Olio di Palma ... ma riesce, in cambio, a vendere all'Indonesia una dozzina di Su-35 ...

 

After three painstaking years of negotiation, Russia and Indonesia have finally agreed to sign a major aerospace deal later this year: 11 top-of-the-line Sukhoi Su-35 fighter jets in exchange for Indonesian palm oil, coffee, and other goods.

The two sides signed a memorandum of understanding in Moscow on Friday.

A final contract may be signed by the end of the year, Russia’s business daily Vedomosti reported on Aug. 6, citing an unidentified Rostec source.

The barter arrangement will be facilitated by Rostec and Indonesia’s state-owned trading company PT Perusahaan Perdagangan Indonesia.

The exact terms of the deal have yet to be made public, but the Su-35s will be financed by Indonesian exports to Russia.

Fonte: DefenseNews ..... "Sukhois for palm oil: Russia and Indonesia announce new barter arrangement" .....

Vedomosti ... https://www.vedomosti.ru/politics/articles/2017/08/07/728196-indoneziya-istrebiteli ...

FGFA ... che sia davvero la volta buona ?

 

DefenseNews ... India to finalize fifth-gen fighter deal ...

 

Sono anni che India e Russia vanno avanti con questo tira e molla ... ragion per cui ... dubitare è il minimo che si possa fare ...

 

 

 

Bahrain ... il Dipartimento di Stato approva ...

FlightGlobal ... US State Department approves F-16V sale to Bahrain ...

La Slovacchia elimina i MiG dalla sua wish list ...

Slovak Defense Minister Peter Gajdos said that while the ministry has received offers from the U.S. to supply the F-16 and Sweden to deliver the JAS-39 Gripen for its planned purchase of 14 fighter jets, MiGs aren’t under consideration.

“Certainly, no one is counting that we will purchase MiGs,” Gajdos said, according to local daily Novy Cas.

Earlier this month, he said that Bratislava evaluated Russia’s offer to supply new aircraft, but this was done to provide the ministry with a better negotiating position.

The planned procurement to replace Slovakia’s Soviet-designed Mikoyan MiG-29 jets is valued at about €1.1 billion (U.S. $1.32 billion).

Slovakia aims to acquire new fighter jets before 2019, when the servicing deal for the MiG-29s is set to expire.

Fonte: defensenews.com ... Slovak defense minister discards MiG as contender in fighter procurement ...

Per gli F-16 greci ... autorizzato l'aggiornamento alla versione 'V' ...

Greece has moved a step closer upgrading a fleet of Lockheed Martin F-16s with new radars, software-defined radios and other equipment.

The US State Department has approved a package of upgrades valued at $2.4 billion to raise the Hellenic Air Force's fleet to the F-16V standard, a Defense Security Cooperation Agency notice says (*).

Fonte: flightglobal.com ... State Department approves F-16V sale to Greece ...

(*) ... Government of Greece – Upgrade of F-16 Aircraft to F-16 Block V Configuration ...

Il Belgio e la sostituzione degli F-16 ...

Una proposta di ampia collaborazione con l'industria belga potrebbe rafforzare la posizione del Consorzio Eurofighter ...

BAE Systems has stepped up its campaign to sell Typhoon combat aircraft to Belgium, with the company and its Eurofighter consortium partners pledging to establish new innovation centres with local industry if the type is selected to replace Brussels' Lockheed Martin F-16s.

Outlined on 26 October and supported by Airbus Defence & Space, BAE, Leonardo and European missile company MBDA, the proposal would see new centres dedicated to defence and aerospace activities opened in Flanders and Wallonia.

To be jointly funded with Belgian industry in the event of a Typhoon selection, these could specialise in areas including advanced manufacturing and additive layer manufacturing, BAE says.

Fonte: flightglobal.com ... Belgian industry pact key to Eurofighter sales campaign ...

baesystems.com ... Benefits for Belgium - For Eurofighter Typhoon, economic return is part of our DNA ...

Escludendo SABCA , controllata da Dassault , è facile che alle altre società verranno offerte quote di lavoro che i paesi del progetto non vogliono più fare ( tipicamente la Germania ) .

Resterebbe tuttavia , per i belgi , il problema di non potersi coordinare con gli olandesi , cosa che fanno da decenni con lo F-16.

Medio Oriente ... ulteriori grossi affari in vista ...

“In the last few years, a lot of these contracts have come to completion. They’ve started signing orders. They’ve been approved. So that does limit what they need to be purchasing for the time being,” said Derek Bisaccio, an aerospace expert with Forecast International.

“That doesn’t mean that there aren’t still opportunities,” he added.

“What I think is notable is that a lot of these countries feel they need to get more. They definitely have the budgets for it, the resources for it, even with the collapse of energy prices.”

Bisaccio estimates the value of the Middle East fighter jet market to be about $22 billion over the next decade, based on projected unit costs per aircraft.

That figure could double if including additional services such as spare parts, training and maintenance.

Fonte: defensenews.com ... Middle East fighter jet sales to surge over the next 5 years ...

UAE ... una conferma ?

 

More than one source told AIN that the purchase will be made official during this year’s Dubai Air Show, and that the Gulf state wants “more than one” squadron of the aircraft, with a total of “more than 10 aircraft.”

However, exact numbers and other details may be known only once the official announcement is made.

 

... ainonline.com ... UAE To Acquire 'More Than 10' Sukhoi Su-35s ...

La Malaysia mette a terra i suoi MiG-29 e pensa ad un caccia leggero monomotore ...

The Royal Malaysian Air Force (RMAF) is no longer seeking a multi-role combat aircraft (MRCA) and is evaluating light combat aircraft (LCA) instead.

In another change of policy, the service has grounded its remaining airworthy MiG-29s instead of upgrading them, although the government has not made a final decision about their future ...

Over the past few years, the makers of fourth-generation combat aircraft such as Boeing (F/A-18 Super Hornet), Dassault (Rafale), Eurofighter (Typhoon) and Saab (Gripen) have all devoted considerable efforts to wooing the southeast Asian country.

But an RMAF official said that Malaysia would defer further evaluation of an MRCA until at least 2025, because of budget constraints.

Instead, it now wants to acquire “one or two squadrons” of a light, single-engine jet that would have some air-to-air performance, including supersonic speed, but that would mainly offer air-to-ground capability.

The Korean Aircraft Industries KA-50 would seem to be the frontrunner, since it has already been chosen by neighboring countries Indonesia, the Philippines and Thailand.

Moreover, it is powered by a GE F404 - the same engine as found on the RMAF’s small fleet of eight Boeing F-18D Hornets.

However, the official said that rival aircraft would be closely evaluated.

Fonte: ainonline.com ... Malaysia Grounds MiG-29s and Rethinks Future Fighter ...

Da una parte si legge che gli Emirati Arabi Uniti sono interessati al Su-35 ...

 

UAE ... una conferma ?

 

... ainonline.com ... UAE To Acquire 'More Than 10' Sukhoi Su-35s ...

 

... da un'altra che hanno in corso trattative con gli Stati Uniti per lo F-35 ...

The U.S. Defense Department has begun talks with the United Arab Emirates about a potential sale of F-35 joint strike fighters, the U.S. Air Force’s number-two general said Friday.

The statements, made by Air Force Vice Chief of Staff Stephen Wilson during a roundtable with reporters ahead of Dubai Airshow, confirm an earlier report by Defense News.

The story cited sources close to the talks that claimed President Donald Trump’s administration was considering delivering a classified briefing on the jet’s capabilities to UAE officials.

Fonte: defensenews.com ... US Air Force official confirms rumors of F-35 talks with UAE ...

Aspettiamoci, dunque, future trattative anche per il MiG-35 ... così potranno dire che hanno completato la serie dei '35' disponibili sul mercato ... come con le figurine ...

 

Ultime dal Canada ...

Ora pensano di lanciare una nuova competizione per un caccia di 5^ generazione nel 2019 ...

The Royal Canadian Air Force expects to release a new request for proposals for its fifth-generation fighter competition by 2019 with a contract award by 2021, the RCAF’s commander says this week.

In June, Canada proposed 88 new fighters for the RCAF , an increase from the previous government’s plan to purchase 65 jets to replace the aging CF-18 fleet, but did not outline a timeline for the RFP.

Fonte: flightglobal.com ... DUBAI: Canada expects fifth-generation fighter contract by 2021 ...

Sbaglio ... o lo F-35 è un caccia di 5^ generazione ?

mi sembrano tutte mosse per lasciare la scelta del prossimo caccia... al prossimo governo.

mi sembrano tutte mosse per lasciare la scelta del prossimo caccia ... al prossimo governo.

 

Può essere ...

Le intenzioni degli Emirati Arabi Uniti e lo scetticismo dell'USAF ...

The United States may be in talks with the United Arab Emirates over a potential Lockheed Martin F-35 sale, but the US Air Force’s head of Central Command doubts the UAE would be able to operate the Joint Strike Fighter alongside a fifth-generation Russian fighter.

During a round table with reporters ahead of the Dubai Air Show, USAF officials confirmed that discussions between the US and UAE were ongoing over a possible F-35 sale.

But the UAE’s loyalties appear split, after Abu Dhabi signed a memorandum of understanding with Russia in February to develop a fifth-generation fighter jet.

While the USAF’s vice chief of staff declined to comment on whether that move could hinder an F-35 acquisition, his counterpart from Central Command said operating a mixed fleet of Russian and US stealth aircraft would prove challenging.

Fonte: flightglobal.com ... DUBAI: USAF general sceptical of mixed F-35 and Russian fleet for UAE ...

Scetticismo fondato o ... timore di vedere un proficuo orticello coltivato anche da altri ?

mi sembrano tutte mosse per lasciare la scelta del prossimo caccia... al prossimo governo.

E' evidente. Trudeau è sempre stato un fermo oppositore dell'F-35 e, anche se ormai il velivolo di Lockheed sembra essere l'unica opzione sensata per la sostituzione dei vecchi Hornet canadesi, ci tiene a non perdere la faccia di fronte al suo elettorato.

Modificato 13 novembre 20178 anni da Loneflyer

E' evidente.

Trudeau è sempre stato un fermo oppositore dell'F-35 e, anche se ormai il velivolo di Lockheed sembra essere l'unica opzione sensata per la sostituzione dei vecchi Hornet canadesi, ci tiene a non perdere la faccia di fronte al suo elettorato.

 

Sarò ripetitivo ... ma, i Canadesi, è da quel dì che hanno perso la faccia ... sin dai lontani tempi dell'Arrow ... passando poi per lo EH-101 ...

F-35 ... c'è chi pone qualche domanda al Governo della Danimarca .....

Denmark’s national audit agency, the Rigsrevisionen, has raised a series of optimization and efficiency questions regarding the government’s basis for deciding to select the F-35A Lightning II as the Royal Danish Air Force’s next-generation fighter.

The Danish government reached a decision in June 2016 to acquire 27 F-35A aircraft at a cost of $3.1 billion.

The F-35As will replace the Air Forces’ F-16s.

Denmark acquired 44 F-16AM and F-16BM fighters from General Dynamics in the 1980s.

The number of actual operational aircraft is about 29.

The Rigsrevisionen operates as the Danish Parliament’s independent watchdog on major capital spending programs.

The agency wants the government to explain how the Ministry of Defence’s final assessment accounted for risks associated with key assumptions in the decision; this includes the inherent risk that the Danish armed forces might be unable to deliver all the tasks required with the 27 F-35 combat aircraft ordered from Lockheed Martin.

Fonte: defensenews.com ... Danish audit agency questions data for F-35 purchase ...

Rigsrevisionen ... Rigsrevisionens beretning om Forsvarsministeriets beslutningsgrundlag for køb af 27 F-35 kampfly afgivet til Folketinget med Statsrevisorernes bemærkninger ...

I futuri caccia degli Emirati Arabi Uniti ... una competizione da tenere attentamente d'occhio a causa delle sue possibili implicazioni internazionali ...

... flightglobal.com ... OPINION: UAE fighter contest will be one to watch ...

Con tanto di sondaggio ...

Altra competizione da tenere d'occhio ... in quanto sono in ballo anche i Tifoni Tranche 1 italiani ...

Ora lo F/A-18 Super Hornet è la new entry in vista della successione ai MiG-29 bulgari ...

Bulgaria will request an offer from Boeing for its F/A-18 Super Hornet aircraft as the country aims to select a new fighter jet by the end of July 2018, according to the country’s defense minister.

Krasimir Karakachanov told state-run radio broadcaster BNR that the Ministry of Defence is seeking the offer in addition to the three main competitors for the deal — Lockheed Martin’s F-16, Saab’s JAS 39 Gripen and the Eurofighter Typhoon.

He said requests for proposals are expected to be sent to manufacturers this month.

Fonte: defensenews.com ... Super Hornet could be chosen as Bulgaria’s next fighter jet by July ...

La situazione sembra, comunque, ancora abbastanza fluida ... anche perchè il numero dei velivoli da acquistare è molto limitato e, in passato, vi è stato più di un ripensamento ...

TF-X ... il futuro caccia turco ...

Il punto sulla situazione .....

La prossima mossa sarà la scelta di un partner estero che possa contribuire, con la propria tecnologia, alla realizzazione di un motore locale .....

Turkey’s defense procurement authorities have given pace to their work to select an engine know-how supplier that will be the backbone of the TF-X, an indigenous Turkish fighter jet in the making.

“We may not hold onto our original target of officially announcing a technology partner (for the engine) in January, but we will come very close to it,” said a senior procurement official familiar with the program.

At the end of October, Turkey’s top procurement official, Ismail Demir, said his office would announce its decision on the TF-X engine in January 2018.

An official from Turkish Aerospace Industries, the prime local contractor for the TF-X program, said talks with a number of potential technology suppliers and their local partners have recently matured enough to give decision-makers a clear picture.

“The idea is to rely on foreign technology in order to build, in the longer term, an indigenous engine that will power the TF-X,” the TAI official said.

“I think we are close to an understanding.”

Fonte: defensenews.com ...Turkey sets timetable for critical phase of its fighter jet program ...