Il giornalista Robert Wall fa il punto, su "Aviation Week & Space Technology", sull'attuale situazione del mercato dei caccia ....

 

 

Fighter Contenders See Multiple Export Opportunities

 

By Robert Wall - July 09, 2012

 

Source ....

 

With India, Japan and Switzerland having made their fighter decisions, the market is starting to turn to smaller campaigns as aircraft makers look to build backlogs to sustain production lines that may otherwise be nearing their end.

 

Competitions in South Korea and Brazil still attract industry players, but after those, the list of buyers thins out to countries with more limited budgets seeking to buy smaller numbers. That means manufacturers are starting to pay attention even to small countries like Botswana, and its eventual F-5 replacement needs.

 

That is not to say the incentive to promote high-end offerings is diminishing. Being able to deliver the most advanced systems possible remains an issue of more than bragging rights. That has Eurofighter officials eager to show that they are finally making progress in the increasingly important realm of active, electronically scanned array technology, where the European consortium has been trailing rivals.

 

The first Captor-E is due to be delivered in the second quarter of 2012, says Bob Mason, vice president for radar marketing and sales at Selex Galileo, one of the partners in the Euroradar consortium. The first Typhoon with the radar will fly next year. Most of the work so far has been financed by industry. A government-funded development contract is now expected in 2013. Industry still hopes to be able to field the system in 2015, although delays in the government's financing of the development program means the in-service date could slip into 2016.

 

The repositioner, designed to maintain IFF (identification friend or foe) polarity and increase the pilot's field of regard using the sensor, and upgraded back end with increased processing are now coming together, Mason says. The development is “low- risk,” he asserts. The basic radar will have air-to-air, air-to-ground and synthetic aperture radar modes.

 

The radar is intended for Tranche 3A fighters, but could be retrofit on Tranche 2 aircraft as well.

 

Pressure is mounting on Typhoon for sales in export markets, having already failed in Japan, India and Switzerland. South Korea, where the Typhoon is squaring off against the Lockheed Martin F-35 and Boeing F-15 Silent Eagle, is seen as a long shot, given the strong U.S. military presence on the peninsula. Malaysia is seen as a potential buyer, and the consortium also still hopes to make inroads in the United Arab Emirates, which has been in on-again, off-again talks with France to buy the Rafale.

 

For the Saab Gripen, last year's win in Switzerland and the subsequent commitment by Sweden to buy 60-80 of the new model E/F-standard aircraft has provided a shot in the arm, but export successes globally have been few.

 

Brazil could provide an important test case, opening the door not just to a new market but potentially to an entire region. Brazil's decision has been delayed numerous times, but Eddy de la Motte, vice president for marketing of the Swedish fighter, notes that “we get the feeling it is the end game.”

 

Saab could deliver the first Gripen E/F (also called the NG) fighter four years after a contract award, but it is still unclear if that is the schedule Brasilia will insist on, or whether it will join the combined Swiss/Swedish Gripen E/F development schedule, which would see the first fighter handed over in 2018.

 

The first Gripen E/F prototype is due to fly late next year if the Swiss and Swedish governments can agree on the development path forward. The effort would likely require some funding from Saab, too.

 

Meanwhile, the Selex Galileo Raven ES-05 active, electronically scanned array radar is to fly on the Gripen NG demonstrator soon, at which time the cockpit displays and sensor will be put through their paces.

 

The Swedish government has an offer on the table for potential export buyers, to accelerate its purchase if another country wants the Gripen E/F early but does not want to be the lead buyer. That offer remains open, de La Motte says.

 

A win in Brazil could open the door to other fighter deals in South America, adds Frederik Gustafson, regional director for Gripen exports in the Americas. “There is a huge need for new fighters in the region and the economies are growing,” he told reporters on the sidelines of the Aerospace Forum Sweden 2012. There are more than a handful of countries that are looking to buy in the next five years, he added.

 

But that is not the only region where Saab is working to meet its target of selling 300 fighters over the next decade. In Thailand, were it has already sold 12 Gripens (six are delivered with six to follow next year), it is hoping for additional deals. Malaysia, the Philippines, Indonesia and, “in a couple of years” Vietnam may also offer opportunities, de La Motte says.

 

Efforts also continue to extend the fighter lease deal with the Czech Republic and secure orders in Bulgaria, Romania, Croatia and Slovakia. Gripen also still hopes to convince Denmark and the Netherlands to defect from the F-35A Joint Strike Fighter program.

 

This year, the Czech Republic is due to make a decision on whether it will extend the fighter lease beyond 2015. The Czech air force currently operates 12 single-seat and two dual-seat Gripens under a lease deal that expires in 2015. The goal is to complete negotiations this year on how to preserve fighter capability.

 

The leading candidate, preferred by the air force, is an extension of the lease deal with the Swedish government, with 5-, 10- and 20-year options being discussed (the 10-year option is seen as the most likely). A decision should be taken this year to allow time for a fall-back plan in case the lease deal does not materialize, says air force chief Brig. Gen. Jiri Verner.

 

Securing additional orders is critical not only for European manufacturers, seeing a potential end of their production lines in this decade in the absence of additional orders. Boeing is looking to both additional F/A-18 purchases by the U.S. and fighter export campaigns to sustain its two fighter production lines—the F-15 and F/A-18—beyond their currently expected lives.

 

The current multi-year program with the U.S. Navy runs until about 2015, but Dennis Muilenburg, CEO of Boeing Defense, Space & Security (DSS), sees scope for sales of additional EA-18Gs to the Pentagon to extend production. “We see an opportunity domestically for the joint electronic attack requirement,” he tells reporters. But whether there is enough demand for a fourth multi-year contract is unclear he notes.

 

While Muilenburg acknowledges that the existing backlog sees pressure on the F-15 and F/A-18E/F production lines in the 5-10-year time frame, he argues that both products have shown resilience and been able to extend their lives.

 

Several important decisions affecting exports loom in the coming months. Before year-end, Brazil is to announce its F-X2 fighter decision where the F/A-18E/F is competing against the Gripen NG and the Dassault Rafale. South Korea is also expected to make its choice between the F-15, Lockheed Martin's F-35 and the Typhoon.

 

Boeing also foresees more clarity to emerge on Australia's plans in the third quarter. That is when a decision is likely on the mix between the F-35s and F/A-18Fs and whether additional Super Hornet purchases will be made, says Mark Kronenberg, vice president- international business development at Boeing DSS. “I don't think they are going to walk away completely from the F-35, but the mix is a factor,” he argues.

 

Boeing sees Denmark as an opportunity for the F/A-18, as well as some nervousness among F-35 buyers that could generate opportunities, Kronenberg says.

 

The Middle East is viewed as another potential hot spot for deals, with Qatar and Kuwait seen as potential F/A-18E/F buyers. Kronenberg notes that “in Kuwait you are starting to see movement I had not seen two years ago.”

 

The United Arab Emirates might be an opportunity for Boeing, but Kronenberg sees that as an F-15 market.

 

Extending the production lines is vital for Boeing to maintain skills until future programs—FA-XX for the U.S. Navy and F-X for the U.S. Air Force—advance beyond the concept study phase. However, Muilenburg notes that skills will also be sustained through other efforts, including work in unmanned aircraft and the USAF's next-generation bomber effort.

 

La Polonia vuole presto nuovi aerei da caccia puntando così ad eliminare l'ormai vecchio materiale di origine sovietica.
Però non ha ancora specificato esattamente cosa vuole.
E le possibilità sono numerose ...

Quote

Until Poland delivers more precise requirements, some manufacturers will remain uncertain with which aircraft to respond, if at all. 
At present, Boeing may propose either the F-15 or F/A-18E/F; Leonardo, on behalf of the Eurofighter consortium, will offer the Typhoon; Lockheed Martin can pitch the F-16 – either upgraded examples or new-build aircraft – or F-35, while Saab could respond with the Gripen E.

Fonte: FlightGlobal ... https://www.flightglobal.com/news/articles/poland-accelerates-fighter-replacement-plans-454094/ ...

Strano non venga citato il Rafale ... 

Occasione per il Typhoon, cosa che i tedeschi boicotteranno per non dar fastidio a Macron .

Il più probabile quindi  ? Lo F-16 secondo me , per  uniformare il più possibile la linea di volo. Per lo F-35 non credo che i tempi siano maturi per motivi di soldi.

Modificato 4 dicembre 20187 anni da engine

Soldi, soldi soldi !!!

Certo che, per la Polonia, l'eventuale acquisto degli F-35 sarebbe un'impresa finanziariamente difficile da realizzare.

A meno che ... gli Americani, tanto per rompere i 'cosiddetti' a Vladimiro, non decidano di fare alla Polonia "un'offerta che non potrà rifiutare" ... 

 

La facessero a noi !  ?

 

Qualche particolare in più sulla IOC italiana.

http://www.occhidellaguerra.it/dichiarata-la-ioc-per-gli-f-35-italiani-allesercitazione-nato-tlp-di-amendola/

Modificato 4 dicembre 20187 anni da engine

Difficoltà ... politiche ... 

Quote

Despite a strong will in the armies of the Central Eastern Europe (CEE) region to replace obsolete Soviet/Russian-made equipment with up-to-date Western aircraft, a number of political obstacles have emerged, both internally and internationally. 
These issues have affected three ongoing programs to procure F-16 fighters in Croatia, Slovakia, and Bulgaria.

Fonte: ainonline.com ... Central European F-16 Deals Facing Political Hurdles ...

Non sapevo in quale forum metterlo ( RCAF , Eurofighter  ) , ma trattandosi di un tentativo , lo metto qui : 

https://www.flightglobal.com/news/articles/eurofighter-typhoon-to-bid-to-replace-canadian-cf-18-455004/

... chissà ....

 

E questa poi .....

https://www.wsj.com/articles/why-buy-whisky-when-you-can-buy-a-fighter-jet-11547492070

Modificato 14 gennaio 20197 anni da engine

Taiwan ... gli agognati F-35 non arriveranno ... pertanto ...

Quote

Taiwan is upgrading a fleet of American-made fighter jets, but may scrap ambitions to acquire the more advanced F-35 models, showing the limits of U.S.-Taiwan military cooperation despite a common interest of resisting China.
The Air Force should get its first four upgraded F-16 A/B fighter jets in early 2019. 
The upgrades are part of a broader overhaul that began a year ago to convert the planes into the equivalent of higher-end F-16Vs, the government-funded Central News Agency said.
But the Taiwanese armed forces, ranked as the world’s 24th strongest, probably won’t get F-35 planes from the American developer Lockheed Martin despite expressions of interest in the past, defense analysts say.
Taiwan would then rely in any war with China, a military rival of some 70 years, on tactical advantages rather than trying to match its firepower.

Fonte: voanews.com ... F-35s Unlikely, Taiwan Upgrades F-16s Fighters to Counter China ...

Anche se non lo si può considerare un vero e proprio 'caccia' ...

Quote

Russia has supplied Laos with four Yakovlev Yak-130 advanced jet trainers constructed at the Irkut Corporation’s plant in Irkutsk under a controversial deal, of which full details have yet to emerge. 
The aircraft arrived at the Vientiane air force station aboard Russian Il-76TD strategic airlifters in December 2018. 
They were assembled and flown earlier this year ahead of the Lao People's Armed Forces (LPAF)’s parade devoted to the 70th anniversary of its foundation. 
Following the withdrawal of MiG-21 fighters earlier this century, the LPAF air force has not operated any combat jets until the arrival of the Yak-130s.
According to the Moscow-based Kommersant newspaper (*), Laos is to receive 10 Yak-130s aircraft along with spares, air-launched munitions, ground equipment, and training in a package worth $300 million. 
Official sources are yet to confirm that.

Fonte: ainonline.com ... Laos Receives Yak-130 Combat Jet Trainers ...

(*) ... Лаосским летчикам прилетело - В страну поступит 10 ЯК-130 ...

 

Il 14/1/2019 in 23:57 , TT-1 Pinto ha scritto:

Taiwan ... gli agognati F-35 non arriveranno ... pertanto ...

Ma arrivano a Singapore : 

http://www.air-cosmos.com/singapour-selectionne-le-f-35-119451

2 ore fa, engine ha scritto:

Ma arrivano a Singapore : 

http://www.air-cosmos.com/singapour-selectionne-le-f-35-119451

Si ... ma senza fretta ... 

Il Canada non ha ancora deciso se acquistare gli F-35 ... però continua a pagarne le spese di sviluppo ... 

Quote

Canada is poised to contribute tens of millions of dollars toward further development of the F-35 stealth fighter even as the federal government wrestles with whether to buy the plane or not.
In an interview with The Canadian Press, the Department of National Defence’s head of military procurement says there are no plans for Canada to quit as one of nine partner countries in the F-35 stealth fighter program until after the Trudeau government completes the competition to determine which fighter jet will replace Canada’s aging fleet of CF-18s.
“We’re committed to staying there (in the program) until we understand where the competition will bring us,” said Patrick Finn, assistant deputy minister of material at National Defence.
The competition is expected to be launched this spring.

Fonte: nationalpost.com ... Canada to keep paying for F-35 development as fighter-jet competition ramps up ...

Anche in Canada :

"E' in atto uno studio specifico, approfondito ed attento sul dossier F35, mirato a verificarne il rapporto costi/benefici. Una volta completato lo studio - ha concluso - il ministro " XXXXX " lo sottoporrà al Presidente " YYYYY " per le opportune valutazioni e conseguenti decisioni".  

fonte :

http://www.ansa.it/sito/notizie/topnews/2019/01/26/f35-tofalo-a-usa-perplessita-governo_9fb2e055-e097-40b4-a729-04d2d6e68cd9.html

?

 

E' lo stesso Tofalo che, poco più di un mese fa, rilasciava le seguenti dichiarazioni ...

https://www.ilfattoquotidiano.it/2018/12/19/f35-il-sottosegretario-alla-difesa-tofalo-m5s-tecnologia-ottima-non-possiamo-rinunciarvi-in-italia-se-ne-parla-in-maniera-distorta/4848703/

https://www.repubblica.it/politica/2018/12/19/news/tofalo_l_f35_croce_e_delizia_la_marcia_indietro_dei_grillini_sul_caccia_delle_polemiche-214640220/?refresh_ce

Lo scolaretto e la scolaretta  dovrebbero spiegare alla loro ( probabilmente infastidita ) omologa americana come sia possibile " rivedere completamente " il programma ( = mollarlo ) e chiedere agli USA di spingere gli europei a far costruire più aerei a Cameri. 
https://www.lastampa.it/2019/01/26/novara/italia-perplessa-sullacquisto-di-altri-aerei-f-lannuncio-a-washington-a1ZqiCpxF32LOK5m9cAIPP/pagina.html

A livello industriale , nessuno si accorge di questi ragionamenti ?

 

 

Il cerchiobottismo praticato da dilettanti cresciuti a pane e qualunquismo dà esilaranti risultati.

55 minuti fa, engine ha scritto:

Lo scolaretto e la scolaretta  dovrebbero spiegare alla loro ( probabilmente infastidita ) omologa americana come sia possibile " rivedere completamente " il programma ( = mollarlo ) e chiedere agli USA di spingere gli europei a far costruire più aerei a Cameri. 
https://www.lastampa.it/2019/01/26/novara/italia-perplessa-sullacquisto-di-altri-aerei-f-lannuncio-a-washington-a1ZqiCpxF32LOK5m9cAIPP/pagina.html

A livello industriale , nessuno si accorge di questi ragionamenti ?

Non è altro che il classico ... "voler la botte piena e la moglie ubriaca" ... 

Germania ... lo F-35 non sarà il successore del Tornado ...

https://www.defensenews.com/global/europe/2019/01/31/germany-officially-knocks-f-35-out-of-competition-to-replace-tornado/

Finlandia ... è una corsa a cinque ...

Quote

The government received proposals from four countries, including the United States, Sweden, France and Britain.
The aircraft types covered in the proposals are Boeing’s F/A-18 Super Hornet, Lockheed Martin’s F-35, France’s Dassault Rafale, the British-made Eurofighter and the Swedish Saab Gripen. 
The Saab proposal includes both the single-seat Gripen E and the dual-seat Gripen F versions.

Fonte: defensenews.com ... Industry bids are in for Finland’s $13 billion fighter race ...

F-15X si ... Light Attack aircraft no ... almeno per ora ...

Quote

The Air Force will propose buying new F-15X aircraft in the fiscal 2020 budget, but won’t seek Light Attack aircraft yet, making those choices to accommodate the National Defense Strategy, the Air Force’s top uniformed acquisition official said Friday at an AFA breakfast on Capitol Hill. 
Lt. Gen. Arnold Bunch said he would not reveal details of the budget, which has not yet been delivered to Congress, but he acknowledged these two items have been discussed widely in recent weeks—including by Chief of Staff Gen. David Goldfein - and he offered some explanations as to USAF’s thinking.
With regard to the Light Attack aircraft - the result of experiments USAF has been doing for nearly three years - Bunch said an actual requirement has now been established after having been “rammed through” the requirements process. 
However, because the expected budget has “gone up and down,” with topline figures ranging from $700 billion to $750 billion, “this was not an area where we would go do a large procurement at this time,” Bunch observed, noting the service also took “priorities” stemming from the NDS into consideration when making this decision. 
He also said the Light Attack program was always “additive” to the service’s budget, and that nothing else could be dropped in order to bring it on. 
So for now, the service will focus on further experimentation.

Fonte: airforcemag.com ... F-15X in, Light Attack Out in FY20 Budget ...

Qatar ... consegnato il primo Rafale ...

https://www.flightglobal.com/news/articles/picture-qatar-receives-first-of-36-rafale-fighters-455567/

F-15X ... l' USAF li vorrebbe ... ma c'è chi esprime dubbi sulla 'saggezza' di tale desiderio ...

Quote

Last Friday, the Air Force announced plans to buy Boeing’s F-15X, based on the jet’s capabilities and comparatively low costs when stacked against the F-35A.
Is this a wise investment? 
Let’s take a look.

Fonte: heritage.org ... The Air Force Wants to Buy More F-15X Jets, and It’s a Huge Mistake ...

Il ragionamento dell'analista citato da Pinto è corretto se si pensa ad operazioni  fuori dai confini.

Tuttavia gli F-15 da sostituire sono quelli delle varie ANG  , il cui scopo primario è la difesa del territorio . La cifra di 72 macchine fa pensare che siano loro i primi  destinatari.

Qui la lista degli Squadrons :

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_United_States_Air_National_Guard_Squadrons

In tale situazione non è detto che gli aerei debbano essere caricati in modo eccessivo ( fast pack , 22 missili , ecc.  ) .

Le capacità di manovra non verrebbero penalizzate troppo ,supposto che la struttura di un F-15 X derivi da quella di uno Strike Eagle, e quindi irrobustita .

Strano che i comandi delle ANG non abbiano detto ancora la loro a riguardo.

Pur non ritenendo che un F-15 coi fast pack sia un ferro da stiro, specie con dei motori potenziati come quelli proposti, ciononostante, in ottica futura , perché è a quella cui si deve guardare quando si acquista nuovo materiale, si deve pensare a ciò che servirà e non a ciò che va bene ora.

I reparti della ANG non necessariamente si devono quindi far bastare materiale di vecchia generazione con gli steroidi solo perché difendono il territorio metropolitano, sia perché non necessariamente è sempre così (spesso reparti ANG hanno partecipato a missioni all’estero), sia perché tolti gli aerei civili fuori rotta, gli avversari potrebbero essere gli stessi, se non peggiori dal momento che oserebbero attaccare il territorio metropolitano USA.

Non a caso l’ANG si sta riequipaggiando con gli F-35 e ha già in organico anche gli F-22 presso il 149th e il 199th Fighter Squadron.

Economicamente il vantaggio dell’operazione F-15X è dubbio, in primis per i costi di acquisto, poi anche  per quelli di gestione, visto che per l’F-35 sono in calo mentre quelli dell’F-15X sono tanto ottimistici quanto tutti da dimostrare.

E’ operativamente però che non vedo il senso di trasformare un F-15 in una sorta di incrociatore volante.

Potrei capire con un’arma a lunghissimo raggio, ma l’AMRAAM non lo è, non almeno rispetto a certi rivali russi e cinesi che potrebbero abbattere un F-15 così affardellato e così ben visibile a distanza superiore a quella alla quale potrebbero arrivare gli AIM-120.

Non andrebbe poi così meglio con i canonici 8 missili, perché la RCS dell’EAGLE è tutto fuorché discreta (sarà anche per quello che il Silent Eagle si è tradotto in un buco nell’acqua).

Forse a nuovi F-15 sarebbe stato meglio pensare dieci anni fa in concomitanza col taglio degli F-22 (beh, mi avrebbe fatto comunque inorridire...), ma quella di far numero a scapito della qualità offerta da altri mezzi oggi pur disponibili è sempre cosa rischiosa: magari funziona, ma più che altro non è il modus operandi statunitense degli ultimi 70 anni, lo stesso che ha già portato a segare il programma per l’indigesto velivolo da attacco leggero.

Che se ne dica, spendere soldi per gli F-15 significa non spenderli altrove, quanto meno non per acquistare F-35 a ritmi maggiori, che sarà anche un velivolo non specificatamente da caccia, ma che ha un vantaggio anagrafico non indifferente che lo rende comunque più performante.

Modificato 9 febbraio 20197 anni da Flaggy

In India hanno bisogno di mettere delle pezze : 

https://www.blogbeforeflight.net/2019/02/india-urgently-buys-mig-29-fighters-russia.html

Anche così facendo , l'aviazione indiana resta terribilmente eterogenea.

F-15X ... alcuni senatori repubblicani scrivono al Presidente ...

Quote

Five Republican senators urged President Trump in a Feb. 14 letter (*) not to buy a new variant of Boeing's F-15 at the expense of the F-35.
--- --- ---
Sens. John Cornyn and Ted Cruz of Texas, Marco Rubio of Florida, Susan Collins of Maine, and Lisa Murkowski of Alaska cosigned the letter, which argues the Air Force needs to buy 60 F-35As in Fiscal 2020 to reach a rate of 80 jets required to succeed in the 2025 threat environment.

L' articolo prosegue qui ... airforcemag.com ... GOP Senators Push Back on F-15X Buy ...

(*) ... https://www.rubio.senate.gov/public/_cache/files/b128405c-6c62-49d1-901c-27e3b4c503da/D52A4B7E1BE2A01EE679959E02994DD0.senate-letter-to-potus-re.-f-35---2-13-19.pdf ...