Il giornalista Robert Wall fa il punto, su "Aviation Week & Space Technology", sull'attuale situazione del mercato dei caccia ....

 

 

Fighter Contenders See Multiple Export Opportunities

 

By Robert Wall - July 09, 2012

 

Source ....

 

With India, Japan and Switzerland having made their fighter decisions, the market is starting to turn to smaller campaigns as aircraft makers look to build backlogs to sustain production lines that may otherwise be nearing their end.

 

Competitions in South Korea and Brazil still attract industry players, but after those, the list of buyers thins out to countries with more limited budgets seeking to buy smaller numbers. That means manufacturers are starting to pay attention even to small countries like Botswana, and its eventual F-5 replacement needs.

 

That is not to say the incentive to promote high-end offerings is diminishing. Being able to deliver the most advanced systems possible remains an issue of more than bragging rights. That has Eurofighter officials eager to show that they are finally making progress in the increasingly important realm of active, electronically scanned array technology, where the European consortium has been trailing rivals.

 

The first Captor-E is due to be delivered in the second quarter of 2012, says Bob Mason, vice president for radar marketing and sales at Selex Galileo, one of the partners in the Euroradar consortium. The first Typhoon with the radar will fly next year. Most of the work so far has been financed by industry. A government-funded development contract is now expected in 2013. Industry still hopes to be able to field the system in 2015, although delays in the government's financing of the development program means the in-service date could slip into 2016.

 

The repositioner, designed to maintain IFF (identification friend or foe) polarity and increase the pilot's field of regard using the sensor, and upgraded back end with increased processing are now coming together, Mason says. The development is “low- risk,” he asserts. The basic radar will have air-to-air, air-to-ground and synthetic aperture radar modes.

 

The radar is intended for Tranche 3A fighters, but could be retrofit on Tranche 2 aircraft as well.

 

Pressure is mounting on Typhoon for sales in export markets, having already failed in Japan, India and Switzerland. South Korea, where the Typhoon is squaring off against the Lockheed Martin F-35 and Boeing F-15 Silent Eagle, is seen as a long shot, given the strong U.S. military presence on the peninsula. Malaysia is seen as a potential buyer, and the consortium also still hopes to make inroads in the United Arab Emirates, which has been in on-again, off-again talks with France to buy the Rafale.

 

For the Saab Gripen, last year's win in Switzerland and the subsequent commitment by Sweden to buy 60-80 of the new model E/F-standard aircraft has provided a shot in the arm, but export successes globally have been few.

 

Brazil could provide an important test case, opening the door not just to a new market but potentially to an entire region. Brazil's decision has been delayed numerous times, but Eddy de la Motte, vice president for marketing of the Swedish fighter, notes that “we get the feeling it is the end game.”

 

Saab could deliver the first Gripen E/F (also called the NG) fighter four years after a contract award, but it is still unclear if that is the schedule Brasilia will insist on, or whether it will join the combined Swiss/Swedish Gripen E/F development schedule, which would see the first fighter handed over in 2018.

 

The first Gripen E/F prototype is due to fly late next year if the Swiss and Swedish governments can agree on the development path forward. The effort would likely require some funding from Saab, too.

 

Meanwhile, the Selex Galileo Raven ES-05 active, electronically scanned array radar is to fly on the Gripen NG demonstrator soon, at which time the cockpit displays and sensor will be put through their paces.

 

The Swedish government has an offer on the table for potential export buyers, to accelerate its purchase if another country wants the Gripen E/F early but does not want to be the lead buyer. That offer remains open, de La Motte says.

 

A win in Brazil could open the door to other fighter deals in South America, adds Frederik Gustafson, regional director for Gripen exports in the Americas. “There is a huge need for new fighters in the region and the economies are growing,” he told reporters on the sidelines of the Aerospace Forum Sweden 2012. There are more than a handful of countries that are looking to buy in the next five years, he added.

 

But that is not the only region where Saab is working to meet its target of selling 300 fighters over the next decade. In Thailand, were it has already sold 12 Gripens (six are delivered with six to follow next year), it is hoping for additional deals. Malaysia, the Philippines, Indonesia and, “in a couple of years” Vietnam may also offer opportunities, de La Motte says.

 

Efforts also continue to extend the fighter lease deal with the Czech Republic and secure orders in Bulgaria, Romania, Croatia and Slovakia. Gripen also still hopes to convince Denmark and the Netherlands to defect from the F-35A Joint Strike Fighter program.

 

This year, the Czech Republic is due to make a decision on whether it will extend the fighter lease beyond 2015. The Czech air force currently operates 12 single-seat and two dual-seat Gripens under a lease deal that expires in 2015. The goal is to complete negotiations this year on how to preserve fighter capability.

 

The leading candidate, preferred by the air force, is an extension of the lease deal with the Swedish government, with 5-, 10- and 20-year options being discussed (the 10-year option is seen as the most likely). A decision should be taken this year to allow time for a fall-back plan in case the lease deal does not materialize, says air force chief Brig. Gen. Jiri Verner.

 

Securing additional orders is critical not only for European manufacturers, seeing a potential end of their production lines in this decade in the absence of additional orders. Boeing is looking to both additional F/A-18 purchases by the U.S. and fighter export campaigns to sustain its two fighter production lines—the F-15 and F/A-18—beyond their currently expected lives.

 

The current multi-year program with the U.S. Navy runs until about 2015, but Dennis Muilenburg, CEO of Boeing Defense, Space & Security (DSS), sees scope for sales of additional EA-18Gs to the Pentagon to extend production. “We see an opportunity domestically for the joint electronic attack requirement,” he tells reporters. But whether there is enough demand for a fourth multi-year contract is unclear he notes.

 

While Muilenburg acknowledges that the existing backlog sees pressure on the F-15 and F/A-18E/F production lines in the 5-10-year time frame, he argues that both products have shown resilience and been able to extend their lives.

 

Several important decisions affecting exports loom in the coming months. Before year-end, Brazil is to announce its F-X2 fighter decision where the F/A-18E/F is competing against the Gripen NG and the Dassault Rafale. South Korea is also expected to make its choice between the F-15, Lockheed Martin's F-35 and the Typhoon.

 

Boeing also foresees more clarity to emerge on Australia's plans in the third quarter. That is when a decision is likely on the mix between the F-35s and F/A-18Fs and whether additional Super Hornet purchases will be made, says Mark Kronenberg, vice president- international business development at Boeing DSS. “I don't think they are going to walk away completely from the F-35, but the mix is a factor,” he argues.

 

Boeing sees Denmark as an opportunity for the F/A-18, as well as some nervousness among F-35 buyers that could generate opportunities, Kronenberg says.

 

The Middle East is viewed as another potential hot spot for deals, with Qatar and Kuwait seen as potential F/A-18E/F buyers. Kronenberg notes that “in Kuwait you are starting to see movement I had not seen two years ago.”

 

The United Arab Emirates might be an opportunity for Boeing, but Kronenberg sees that as an F-15 market.

 

Extending the production lines is vital for Boeing to maintain skills until future programs—FA-XX for the U.S. Navy and F-X for the U.S. Air Force—advance beyond the concept study phase. However, Muilenburg notes that skills will also be sustained through other efforts, including work in unmanned aircraft and the USAF's next-generation bomber effort.

 

Mica facile concludere affari con i potentati arabi ....

 

.... how about the United Arab Emirates ending its interest in the Eurofighter Typhoon?

There had been a lot of optimism in the run-up to November’s Dubai air show that a deal could be done, but in typical UAE style, it all came to nothing.

Dassault had been in the same optimistic position a couple of years before with its Rafale, while in the trainer sector an expected buy of the Alenia Aermacchi M-346 also fell late in the talks process.

 

Fonte .... http://www.flightglobal.com/blogs/the-dewline/2013/12/uae-easy-123/

Ehhh, anche chi ha molti soldi tende a non sprecarli¨!

Tempi duri in vista anche per gli USA .... e non solo per quel che riguarda i caccia ....

 

Opinion: U.S. Military Aircraft Fly Toward A Waterfall ....

By Richard Aboulafia

Source: Aviation Week & Space Technology (December 30, 2013)

Remember the Last Supper?

This wave of 1990s defense company mergers was intended to solve the industry's post-Cold War overcapacity problem.

If overcapacity is measured in corporate names or headquarters staff, then mission accomplished.

Unfortunately, overcapacity is best measured in factories and programs, and aside from Grumman's F-14 and Northrop's B-2, no active military aircraft lines were terminated in the 1990s.

Whether through reinvention or exports, most lines stayed alive.

Yet the past few months have seen stark harbingers of looming pain.

In September, right after Boeing delivered the 223rd and final U.S. Air Force C-17, the company announced the line would close in 2015.

A month later, South Korea rejected the Boeing F-15 for its F-X 3 competition, dooming the proposed Silent Eagle variant and probably killing the line after the last of Saudi Arabia's current order is delivered in 2018.

In December, the Boeing F/A-18E/F lost the Brazilian FX-2 competition, one of several key international defeats.

A pre-solicitation announcement for 36 additional Super Hornets in fiscal 2015, placed by the Navy at the FedBizOpps.gov website in October, was withdrawn several days later, probably under pressure from the Defense Department.

The last Super Hornet is scheduled to be delivered in 2016, and Boeing said it must decide this March whether it will preserve the line with company funding.

The problem is not confined to Boeing's legacy programs.

Lockheed Martin, which delivered the last F-22 last year, says its F-16 backlog only takes production through mid 2017.

Beechcraft's last T-6 is slated for delivery in 2016.

Bell-Boeing's V-22 program will expire around 2020, unless funding is found for additional aircraft.

While no other U.S. military rotorcraft lines are threatened, 2011-18 procurement is being cut in half.

That leaves the U.S. with two secure, dedicated fixed-wing military production lines (and only one prime contractor): Lockheed Martin's F-35 and C-130J.

Boeing is building its KC-46 tanker and P-8 maritime patrol derivatives of commercial jetliners, but the P-8 is slated to wind down around 2020, too.

There are few new programs in the pipeline.

The Air Force's T-X trainer should generate an off-the-shelf jet production line, but not until the next decade.

The Long Range Strike-Bomber is just starting development, and we are unlikely to see any production aircraft until 2025, at the earliest.

There is not much planning behind this carnage.

While the C-130J is one of the few secure lines, with healthy ongoing procurement for the Air Force, Special Operations Command, Marines and export customers, it only barely survived the ax.

Just eight years ago, the Defense Department moved to end procurement, effectively killing the C-130J line.

If this move had not been averted, there would be an aging fleet of 40-plus-year-old C-130s in constant demand but with no replacements in sight.

Today, the C-17 line is closing just as the U.S. is pivoting its forces toward Asia.

This means the country will need greater strategic mobility just as it is killing its only strategic airlifter, with no funding in sight for a replacement.

The faction of the Navy that wants to continue Super Hornet procurement is also mindful of the risk of killing the old before the new F-35C has proven itself for carrier operations.

Given the challenging top-line defense budget outlook, little can be done to save more than one or two of these programs, if any.

But what is more important, the U.S. can change the way it manages aircraft programs.

Today, the entire system is geared toward racing programs through at the fastest possible pace.

The services are incentivized to spend money when budgets are good, and to focus on lower unit costs through greater production volume.

Companies are motivated to bring in revenues and profits, lawmakers to bring jobs to their districts.

These are understandable motivations, but they neglect the need to preserve industrial assets.

The alternative is to tolerate slightly higher unit costs (and greater risk of being caught by a top-line budget down-cycle) to make programs last longer.

Rather than procuring 48 planes per year for 10 years, why not 36 per year for 13 years?

Why not use export orders to stretch out domestic buys, rather than as an opportunity to raise production rates?

The Defense Department needs to stretch procurement at the expense of program economics.

A belated move toward prioritizing industrial-base concerns in procurement will be welcome for the next generation of programs.

But for this decade, the industry will see factory closures and thousands of layoffs, along with the loss of national defense assets.

The real post-Cold-War day of reckoning for military aircraft is looming large.

Contributing columnist Richard Aboulafia is vice president of analysis at Teal Group.

He is based in Washington.

 

Link .... http://www.aviationweek.com/Article.aspx?id=/article-xml/AW_12_30_2013_p15-650072.xml#

Sembra che l’Argentina abbia bloccato l’acquisto dei Mirage F-1 ex spagnoli e stia valutando altre opzioni, con favoriti 18 IAI Lahav Kfir Block 60 di produzione israeliana, una soluzione più avanzata.

 

http://www.janes.com/article/32019/argentine-mirage-f1-buy-reportedly-stalls

Modificato 4 gennaio 201412 anni da Scagnetti

Peccato che gli articoli che appaiono sul sito di Jane's siano, il più delle volte, incompleti .... e che neanche agli abbonati alla versione cartacea di JDW sia consentito di leggerli nella loro interezza ....

 

Mannaggia ....

C'è poco da mannaggiare.... L'abbonamento annuale costa più di 300 sterline.

L'Indonesia cerca un successore per i suoi F-5 ....

 

Indonesia eyes F-5E replacement options ....

 

Indonesia is assessing fighters to replace its obsolescent Northrop F-5E fighters, with a decision possible before 2015.

Official news agency Antara quoted defence minister Purnomo Yusgiantoro as saying that Jakarta has received proposals from several companies for the 16 aircraft requirement.

 

Fonte .... http://www.flightglobal.com/news/articles/indonesia-eyes-f-5e-replacement-options-394632/

 

Antara .... http://www.antaranews.com/en/news/92116/defense-ministry-looking-to-replace-aging-f-5-tiger-fighter-aircraft

L'Argentina sta trattando con Israele ....

 

Argentina is negotiating a deal to purchase 18 rebuilt and upgraded Kfir Block 60 fighters from Israel Aerospace Industries.

The acquisition could be an alternative to a planned deal to buy 16 former-Spanish air force Dassault Mirage F1s for the nation's air force.

 

Fonte .... http://www.flightglobal.com/news/articles/argentina-seeks-kfir-deal-with-israel-394770/

L’articolo di FG indica l’Elta Systems EL/M-2032 come radar AESA.

Non è così, per quanto possa essere avanzato. L’EL/M-2032 è installato sulle versioni C-10/12 dei Kfir colombiani. Quale sarà il radar dei Block 60 non è chiaro. Sulla pagina linkata sopra del sito IDF si parla genericamente di "AESA type radar", un termine che potrebbe essere un po’ ambiguo. L’EL/M-2052 o lo stesso EL/M-2032?

Kfir .... non è un aggiornamento .... bensì una rinascita ....

.... e il suo radar, secondo quanto afferma Arie Egozi sul blog "Ariel view", sarà un Elta EL/M-2052 AESA ....

 

Upgrading military aircraft – fixed wing and rotary – is a common operation performed all over the world.

You take an old platform, reinforce the fuselage and wings, install some new systems and it can fly for many more years.

But what Israel Aerospace Industries (IAI) is currently doing with its old Kfir fighter aircraft is an exception.

 

Link .... http://www.flightglobal.com/blogs/ariel-view/2014/01/upgrade-exactly-reborn/

Mercato asiatico .... la tendenza è in direzione del "Lightning II" ....

 

Fast-Changing Trends In Asia Fighter Market ....

 

After South Korea overturned its procurement agency's choice of the Boeing F-15SE Silent Eagle as its air force's next new fighter in September, and announced that it would buy the Lockheed Martin F-35A Joint Strike Fighter, Lockheed Martin and sources close to the company were not shy about predicting an Asian sweep for JSF.

Japan had already chosen the new U.S. fighter over the Boeing F/A-18E/F Super Hornet and Eurofighter Typhoon (the latter was also passed over by South Korea), and Singapore was expected to follow suit imminently.

Other nations in the region would do the same, it was argued, driven by the desire to match their neighbors and the growing threat from China.

 

Fonte .... http://www.aviationweek.com/Article.aspx?id=/article-xml/AW_02_03_2014_p66-657036.xml

Resterà solo un highlander?: Analyst: It’s the End of an Era for Military Aviation Industry

Anche i polacchi sembrano muoversi verso macchine della 5a generazione:

 

http://theaviationist.com/2014/02/23/polish-air-force-new-fighters-f35/

Non credo di aver capito bene:"The sum allocated to the procurement of the future aircraft is around 2.8B Polish Zloty (930M USD)."

Quindi hanno intenzione di spendere 930 milioni di dollari(672 mil di euro) per 64 aerei di 5 gen?

E' ormai tempo di decisioni ..... per Finlandia e Danimarca .....

The final selection process for Finland's and Denmark's fighter replacement programs will be managed by two newly installed governments.

Finland's center-right government took office on May 29 and is expected to provisionally examine aircraft replacement options by the end of June, while assessing the pros and cons of candidate aircraft based on expert reports in August and September.

Denmark is heading into fresh parliamentary elections on June 18 — the same day the Ministry of Defense plans to hold a special fighter aircraft project assessment meeting to evaluate the three short-listed aircraft and guide the selection process.

Fonte ..... "New Finn, Danish Leaders To Decide Future Fighters" ..... http://www.defensenews.com/story/defense/air-space/strike/2015/06/07/finland-denmark-fighter-replacement-government-f35-hornet-eurofighter-typhoon-gripen/28421615/

Sulla Danimarca ricordo a tutti che Eurofigther uscì dal bando dicendo che era cucito attorno sul f35..

E la Finlandia dite che non si allinereea al resto d Europa sulla medesima macchina?

Modificato 8 giugno 201511 anni da maxiss

E' necessario semplificare le procedure di certificazione per poter poi premere affinché all'estero vengano acquistati i nostri prodotti ..... quanto all'inverso .....

 

 

 

The US Air Force’s top acquisition executive says the service wants to do more to support the sale of American-made aircraft and parts abroad, and one proposal gaining momentum is to complete airworthiness certification even before foreign military sales (FMS) cases emerge.

William LaPlante, air force assistant secretary for acquisition, says that normally the military airworthiness certification process starts at the point of sale, but several domestic manufacturers have expressed interest it certifying their products by the air force sooner to make those items more attractive on the international market.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

On the prospects of the USAF buying more foreign military equipment, LaPlante was less enthusiastic.

 

Fonte ..... "USAF doing more to help foreign sales of American aircraft" ..... http://www.flightglobal.com/news/articles/usaf-doing-more-to-help-foreign-sales-of-american-aircraft-414519/

 

Illuminante ..... vero?

Argentina ..... si torna a parlare di trattative in corso con Israele .....

 

"Argentina Eyes Second-Hand Kfirs To Replace Mirages" ..... http://www.defensenews.com/story/defense/air-space/strike/2015/07/25/argentina-eyes-second-hand-kfirs-replace-mirages/30247999/

L'Argentina ha scelto ..... non saranno cinesi o russi (come in passato era stato ipotizzato) i suoi futuri caccia .....

 

Argentina is expected to sign a contract on 10 November covering the purchase of 14 Kfir Block 60 fighters.

The nation's air force opted to acquire upgraded examples of the Israel Aerospace Industries-produced combat aircraft, which have been non-operational for two decades.

IAI had been offering a Block 60 version of the roughly 40-year-old Kfir design, powered by a GE Aviation J79 engine.

The company says the powerplant will be supplied in a "zero-hour" condition after a complete overhaul, with replacement required after 1,600 flight hours.

Fonte ..... "Argentina to sign for AESA-equipped Kfir fighters" ..... https://www.flightglobal.com/news/articles/argentina-to-sign-for-aesa-equipped-kfir-fighters-418883/

Sembra dunque chiaro che la scarsità di risorse finanziarie a disposizione del paese latino americano abbia avuto un peso determinante nella decisione di scegliere una versione, sia pure adeguatamente aggiornata, dell'ormai vetusto caccia israeliano .....

 

Il primo acquirente estero del Su-35 è ..... la Cina .....

Come conseguenza la Russia si troverà, prima o poi, a dovere affrontare la competizione dei cloni asiatici sul mercato internazionale ..... senza contare i progressi tecnologici che la Cina potrà conseguire dalle analisi che effettuerà sugli esemplari in proprio possesso .....

China will buy 24 Sukhoi Su-35 fighter jets from Russia in a deal worth more than $2 billion, an industry source told Reuters on Thursday, in a move that may help the Kremlin's strained finances.

A spokeswoman for Russian state conglomerate Rostec confirmed a deal between the two countries had been signed involving Su-35 fighter jets, but declined to provide details.

The deal makes China the first foreign buyer of the Su-35, one of Russia's most advanced military aircraft, and is one of the largest contracts for military jets ever signed between the two countries.

 

Fonte ..... "Russia, China sign contract worth over $2 billion for Su-35 fighter jets: source" ..... http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/11/20/us-russia-china-jets-idUSKCN0T80K220151120#IytKP7IG5KydL2zQ.97

 

Io non li riesco proprio a capire. Lo vendono anche se sanno che lo copieranno, come è già successo.

 

Mistero.

Pezze al c...?

Pezze al c... non credo proprio visto che tutti i paesi occidentali fanno la fila e scalpitano per vendere tecnologia avanzata ai Cinesi o peggio scaliptano per vendere le proprie attività produttive e industrie

veramente ai cinesi non si vende alcuna tecnologia: la delocalizzazione è produttiva, non ingegneristica. tralasciando che ormai il back-reshoring sta diventanto una realtà consolidata.

Modificato 22 novembre 201510 anni da vorthex

Delocalizzando produttivamente si trasferisce tecnologia e comunque vendite dirette di tecnologia ci sono state e continuano: a titolo di esempio( eclatante) il brand Lenovo é in realtà il ramo d'azienda IBM per il settore personal computer venduto per fare cassa . Nel nostro piccolo, noi italiani abbiamo venduto il nome e il progetto Lambretta ai cinesi, per non parlare dei missili aspide. In sintesi non é che i russi siano messi peggio di noi