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Missiles on Syria border prelude to intervention: report

 

NATO’s deployment of Patriot missiles on Turkey’s restive border with Syria is a prelude to military intervention in the country to help “terrorist groups,” a pro-regime newspaper reported on Tuesday.

The pro-regime Al-Watan newspaper said that the deployment of missiles was also aimed at sabotaging international peace envoy Lakdhar Brahimi’s diplomatic efforts at resolving the crisis in Syria.

“In deploying Patriot missiles, one of the Turkish campaign’s objectives is to lead NATO towards intervening militarily in Syria in support of terrorist groups,” the newspaper reported citing an unnamed official.

The regime of President Bashar al-Assad has consistently referred to activists and rebels as “terrorists” ever since the outbreak of a revolt in March last year that morphed into an armed rebellion.

The deployment of missiles “is also aimed at sabotaging diplomatic efforts by international peace envoy Lakhdar Brahimi, as well as discussions taking place between US and Russian deputy foreign ministers to try and find a solution to the crisis,” the official was quoted as saying by Al-Watan.

The deployment is also aimed at “covering up French and British attempts at transferring arms to the opposition”.

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Syria Uses Scud Missiles in New Effort to Push Back Rebels

 

President Bashar al-Assad’s forces have resorted to firing ballistic missiles at rebel fighters inside Syria, Obama administration officials said Wednesday, escalating a nearly two-year-old civil war as the government struggles to slow the momentum of a gaining insurgency.

Administration officials said that over the last week, Assad forces for the first time had fired at least six Soviet-designed Scud missiles in the latest bid to push back rebels who have consistently chipped away at the government’s military superiority.

In a conflict that has already killed more than 40,000 Syrians, the government has been forced to augment its reliance on troops with artillery, then air power and now missiles as the rebels have taken over military bases and closed in on the capital, Damascus. The escalation has not changed Washington’s decision to avoid military intervention in Syria — as long as chemical weapons are not used — but it did prompt a rebuke.

“As the regime becomes more and more desperate, we see it resorting to increased lethality and more vicious weapons moving forward, and we have in recent days seen missiles deployed,” said Victoria Nuland, a State Department spokeswoman.

President Obama has said that the use of chemical weapons would cross a “red line,” implying that it might lead to an American military response.

Mr. Assad’s decision to fire Scuds — not known for their precision — inside his own country appears directly related to the rebel ability to take command of military bases and seize antiaircraft weapons. The Scuds have been fired since Monday from the An Nasiriyah Air Base, north of Damascus, according to American officials familiar with the classified intelligence reports about the attacks. The target was the Sheikh Suleiman base north of Aleppo, which rebel forces had occupied.

The development may also represent a calculation by the Syrian leadership that it can resort to such lethal weapons without the fear of international intervention, partly because Washington had set its tolerance threshold at the use of chemical weapons. Mr. Obama has never suggested that the United States would take action to stop attacks against Syrian rebels and civilians with conventional weapons, no matter how severe.

“This may be another example of the unintended consequence of the red line the administration has drawn with regard to chemical weapons,” said Joseph Holliday, a former Army intelligence officer and a senior analyst at the Institute for the Study of War, a nongovernmental research group. “Assad views every weapon short of chemicals as fair game.”

The disclosure about the Scuds came as representatives of more than 100 nations gathered in Marrakesh, Morocco, for a conference intended to give a political lift to the Syrian opposition, which is formally known as the National Coalition of Syrian Revolutionary and Opposition Forces. And it came amid an increase in violence in Syria, including reports of a new massacre of about 100 Alawites, Mr. Assad’s sect, and a large bombing in the capital.

Mr. Obama, in an interview on Tuesday with ABC News, formally recognized the coalition as the legitimate representative of the Syrian people.

William Burns, the deputy secretary of state who led the American team to the Morocco gathering, said Wednesday that he had invited opposition leaders to Washington, including Sheik Ahmad Moaz al-Khatib, the coalition leader.

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Intelligence on Syrian troops readying chemical weapons for use prompted Obama’s warning

 

Western intelligence agencies observed Syrian units making advanced preparations for the potential use of chemical weapons, including loading trucks with ready-to-use bombs and shells, prompting President Obama last week to warn Syria against using the banned munitions, according to Western and Middle Eastern officials.

Soldiers at one Syrian base were monitored mixing precursors for chemical weapons and taking other steps to ready the lethal munitions for battlefield use, the officials said. It was the first hard evidence that Syria was moving toward possible activation of its vast arsenal of chemical weapons, which includes nerve gas and other poisons.

Surveillance photos confirmed that at least one army unit began loading special military vehicles that transport bombs and artillery shells carrying chemical warheads, according to the officials. The moves followed specific orders to elite troops to begin preparations for the use of the weapons against advancing rebel fighters, the officials said.

Two Western officials briefed on the intelligence findings said that the Syrian government forces stopped the preparations late last week and that there was no evidence that activated chemical weapons were loaded onto aircraft or deployed to the battlefront.

The officials spoke on the condition of anonymity because of the sensitive nature of the intelligence. The Obama administration and the CIA declined to answer questions about the episode. Defense Secretary Leon E. Panetta said this week that the threat had eased, though it had not been eliminated.

Intelligence analysts said the orders to prepare the weapons were issued about two weeks ago. They said it was not clear whether the decision came from senior Syrian leaders, possibly including President Bashar al-Assad, or from a field commander acting on his own, the officials said.

Since concerns surfaced in the summer that Syria was moving chemical weapons among several sites across the country, officials in Damascus have repeatedly pledged not to use the banned munitions. After the warnings last week from Obama and other foreign leaders, the Syrian Foreign Ministry repeated that it would not use chemical weapons against the rebel forces.

Still, the discovery that steps had been taken to activate weapons at at least one military base alarmed intelligence officials, because of fears that a single commander could unleash the deadly poisons without orders from higher up the chain of command.

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i missili Scud di AssadSyrian Scud missile launch caught on tape (la qualità del video è mediocre)

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dI6sMQxbb2Y&feature=player_detailpage

 

 

... A Syrian Airstrike Kills Palestinian Refugees and Costs Assad Support

 

Government forces for the first time hit Syria’s largest Palestinian refugee neighborhood with airstrikes on Sunday, killing at least eight people in the Yarmouk district of Damascus and driving dozens of formerly pro-government Palestinian fighters to defect to the rebels, fighters there said.

New signs emerged on Sunday of political pressure on President Bashar al-Assad. Mr. Assad’s vice president was quoted as saying that neither side could win the war and calling for “new partners” in a unity government, a possible sign that at least some in the government were exploring new ways out of the crisis. The comments came as two close allies, the government of Iran and the leader of the Lebanese Shiite group Hezbollah, appeared to slightly temper their support.

In Yarmouk, burned body parts littered the ground at the Sheik Abdul Qader mosque, which had offered shelter to Palestinians and others displaced by fighting in other areas. Minutes before, a Syrian fighter jet fired rockets at the camp. Women, crying children and white-bearded men thronged the streets with hurriedly packed bags, not sure where to look for safety.

For many Yarmouk residents — refugees from conflict with Israel and their descendants — the attacks shattered what was left of the Syrian government’s claim to be a champion and protector of Palestinians, a position the Assad family relied upon as a source of domestic and international legitimacy in more than 40 years of iron-fisted rule.

“For decades the Assad regime was talking about the Palestinians’ rights,” said a Palestinian refugee who gave his name as Abu Ammar as he debated whether to flee with his wife and five children from the camp, on the southern edge of Damascus. “But Bashar al-Assad has killed more of us today than Israel did in its latest war on Gaza.”

He added: “What does Bashar expect from us after today? All of us will be Free Syrian Army fighters.”

The Palestinian militant group and political party Hamas has broken with Mr. Assad over his crackdown on what began as a peaceful protest movement, and while most Palestinian parties still profess neutrality, a growing number of Palestinians support — and have even joined — the rebels.

 

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NATO Allies Might Be Unprepared for Syria

 

As NATO allies move troops and Patriot missile batteries into Turkey, heating up an already dicey situation on the Syrian border, experts are pointing to an alarming possibility: Most NATO countries might be ill-equipped to intervene in the ongoing conflict in Syria.

The problem stems from allies’ relatively small stockpiles of precision-guided munitions (PGMs), the smart bombs critical to effective operations in densely populated areas. So even if NATO members voice full support for an operation, they might not have the weapons to back it up.

“The heart is willing, but the flesh is weak,” said a former U.S. State Department official.

Potentially making matters worse, experts anticipate that any operation in Syria would require more PGMs than the last major NATO air campaign in Libya.

Because of Syria’s superior air defense network and greater population density, the demand would outstrip supply, said Guy Ben-Ari, a senior fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

“They just don’t have enough precision munitions, full stop,” he said. “Whether it’s to take out the air defense system, or whether it’s to take out the high-value targets that are much closer in Syria than they were in Libya to civilian populations, you do need a much larger inventory of precision munitions.”

Concern over the stockpiles of precision weapons is not theoretical. Less than a month into the 2011 Libya campaign, NATO came close to running out of PGMs, which are both advanced and expensive bombs. The situation became sufficiently dire that the U.S. rushed munitions to allies to help feed the campaign, and even kept aircraft on call in case NATO allies needed assistance after the U.S. had ceded major operational control. At the time, six countries were providing aircraft for the campaign: Belgium, Canada, Denmark, France, Norway and the U.K.

Experts’ fears about European stocks stem from larger concerns about budgets in Europe and the Libya scare, which revealed the vital role PGMs play in a modern campaign, as well as the relatively light reserves carried by many European countries.

“The budgets have been going down sharply in Europe for over a decade now; initially, the investment accounts, especially the acquisition accounts, were quite well-protected, but that hasn’t been the case in the last few years,” Ben-Ari said. “There really is a big question mark on whether the PGM inventory specifically has even been brought back to pre-Libya levels, let alone overstocked for a potential Syria campaign.”

Yet several defense officials from NATO countries voiced confidence in their stocks of PGMs.

A senior Italian defense source said the Italian Air Force is “satisfied with its stocks of precision munitions, although not in reference to any specific mission.” A French defense official said that if there were an intervention, it would be in a coalition, and there would be sufficient stockpiles in the coalition. The official would not give numbers but indicated that France has “enough” bombs or could acquire them through its allies.

However, on Dec. 14, the French news website lepoint.fr reported France’s stocks will not return to pre-Libya levels until the end of 2013, citing a report from the Defense Ministry’s inspector general. A Defense Ministry spokesman declined to comment on the levels of munitions and the time for rebuilding stocks but pointed out that it takes about six months for an order contract to be signed, including the tender process, and the manufacturing time for sophisticated munitions takes months, not weeks.

The actual level of stocks is “highly classified,” the spokesman said.

The U.K.’s Defence Ministry declined to comment.

Doug Barrie, the senior air analyst at the International Institute of Strategic Studies in London, said that as part of a broader coalition, the British are capable of mounting a significant effort with available weapons.

“Six months is doable, but a sustained operation might cause problems,” he said. “As always, though, time scales are dependent on utilizations and targets.”

Several European NATO countries have made purchases to restock. The U.K. placed orders for Raytheon’s Paveway IV precision-guided bomb and MBDA’s Dual Mode Brimstone missile. An industry source said that following the Libya campaign, France had ordered a number of guided bombs to replace spent munitions.

There also is some confidence that there may be some additional capacity available, if need be. A spokesman for MBDA said production work converting the legacy Brimstone missile already in British stockpiles into the highly regarded dual-mode weapon is underway.

If the stocks prove insufficient, the U.S. would have two options: Take over more of the operations, or send more munitions. Both would be more difficult this time around, as the U.S. defense budget is stretched far thinner heading into 2013.

European budgetary concerns become especially significant because of the expense of PGMs, said Nora Bensahel, a senior fellow at the Center for a New American Security.

“Precision-guided munitions are quite expensive, and there aren’t a tremendous number of production lines, so it’s not just a matter of have they allocated the money for it. It’s a question of how fast can the production lines ramp up,” she said.

 

Amid fears of Syrian missile attack, NATO prepares to deploy E-3 “flying radar stations” to Turkey

 

Along with several Patriot missiles batteries, about to be stationed along the border with Syria as part of a NATO force to protect Turkey from a potential ballistic missile attack by Assad’s forces, the alliance is about to deploy E-3A AWACS (Airborne Warning And Control System) planes to the region.

According to a source who spoke off the record, the AEW planes are bound to Konya, one of the FOBs (Forward Operating Bases) of the NATO Airborne Early Warning & Control Force component.

Although they were scheduled to attend a training exercise from the Anatolian airfield, it is safe to say that the “flying radar stations” will be used to keep an eye on the southern chunk of the Turkish airspace where Ankara has strenghtened the presence of Turkish Air Force planes since Turkey and Syria exchanged fire with Syrian forces on the border at the beginning of October.

The E-3 AWACS are not only capable to discover aircraft flying at very low altitude; they can provide Airspace Management duties as well as act as information sharing hubs (by interconnecting ground-based radar stations and flying assets), and can also detect missiles, as the Soviet-built Scud-B missiles that landed fairly close to the Turkish border lately.

In other words: although they may be on a scheduled deployment, they are moving into position should the need to support a Peace Support Operation arise.

 

Siria, rapito un ingegnere italiano La famiglia chiede il silenzio stampa

 

Mario Belluomo, ingegnere di Catania, è stato rapito in Siria. Lavorava nell'acciaieria Hmisho di Latakia. La Farnesina ha riferito che Belluomo è stato rapito insieme a due colleghi di altre nazionalità, probabilmente un'operazione a fini di lucro, secondo fonti dell'acciaieria. Gli altri due rapiti sarebbero di nazionalità russa. Il ministero degli Esteri ha allertato l'unità di crisi, così come l'omologo di Mosca che però non conferma il rapimento.

IL SILENZIO STAMPA - Secondo un parente dell'ingegnere, Gianfranco, Mario Belluomo è stato sequestrato «nei giorni scorsi. Noi e i responsabili dell'unità di crisi della Farnesina - ha spiegato all'agenzia Ansa - volevamo che la notizia non trapelasse per evitare di farlo diventare un caso internazionale». La famiglia ha chiesto il silenzio stampa: la madre, anziana, non è infatti ancora stata informata dell'accaduto.

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Russian navy ships sail to Mediterranean amid talk about evacuation of Russians from Syria

 

The Russian Defense Ministry says a navy squadron has set off for the Mediterranean on a mission that comes amid official talk about a possible evacuation of Russians from Syria.

The ministry said Tuesday that the squadron will rotate the navy ships that have been in the area since November. Russia’s base in the Syrian port of Tartus is its only naval outpost outside the former Soviet Union.

Russian diplomats said last week that Moscow is preparing a plan to evacuate thousands of Russians from Syria if necessary. Moscow has been the main ally of Syrian President Bashar Assad, shielding it from international sanctions over a brutal crackdown on an uprising that began in March 2011.

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Joy for NBC crew freed from kidnappers in Syria

 

An NBC reporter and his crew spoke Tuesday of their overwhelming relief after being freed from kidnappers in Syria who kept them bound, blindfolded and repeatedly threatened to kill them during a five-day ordeal.

Speaking from Turkey, Richard Engel described on NBC's "Today" show how he and his crew were seized by a group of masked, heavily armed men shortly after crossing into northwest Syria from Turkey on Thursday.

While the NBC crew members were bundled into a waiting container truck, one of the rebel fighters who had been escorting them into Syria was executed on the spot, Engel said.

Then followed five days during which the team was moved among a series of safe houses and interrogation places, always blindfolded. Although they weren't physically harmed, they were subjected to "a lot of psychological torture" and threats of being killed, Engel said.

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... Van Roumuy ha letto questo articolo NATO Allies Might Be Unprepared for Syria (già postato in precedenza), e ... dissente L’Unione europea ha i mezzi intervenire in Siria

 

L’Unione europea ha il “dovere morale” di intervenire nel conflitto che lacera la Siria, e per appoggiare le opposizioni al regime di Bashar al Assad è pronta “a valutare qualsiasi opzione”. Lo ha detto il presidente del Consiglio europeo Herman Van Rompuy al termine del vertice dei Ventisette nella capitale belga venerdì scorso. In altre parole, l’Ue punta a una transizione pacifica in Siria, ma non viene più esclusa a priori la possibilità di un intervento militare. Per ora l’opzione resta ancora lontana, ma se si decidesse di imbracciare le armi, cosa potrebbe fare praticamente Bruxelles?

 

Etichettata più volte come nano politico o impotenza militare, l’Ue avrebbe teoricamente [giusta precisazione] i mezzi per intervenire nella questione siriana. Sia per fermare il sanguinoso conflitto, che per assicurare la pace e guidare i siriani nella difficile opera di ricostruzione economica, sociale ed istituzionale del paese.

 

Dai trattati di Roma del 1957, le istituzioni europee hanno sviluppato nel corso del tempo una propria politica estera e l’Unione si è trasformata da “consumatore” a “produttore” di sicurezza, sia all’interno dei propri confini, sia sulla scena internazionale. Non esiste un vero e proprio esercito dell’Ue e la difesa resta ancora una prerogativa nazionale dei singoli Stati, ma il Trattato di Lisbona ha introdotto notevoli novità in materia che rendono più snella e meno costosa la Politica di sicurezza e di difesa comune, e forse più consona a scenari complessi come quello siriano.

 

Ad oggi l’Ue ha autonoma capacità di intervento in settori specifici riguardanti attività di mantenimento della pace (peacekeeping), per prevenire la deflagrazione di un conflitto e in missioni di unità di combattimento nella gestione delle crisi. [qualche esempio? Forse la Libia?] Comprese quelle tese al ristabilimento della pace (peacemaking, peacebuilding, peaceenforcement), in cui rientra ad esempio l’obiettivo di imporre una zona demilitarizzata per separare fazioni in guerra. Opzioni che costituiscono i cosiddetti compiti di Petersberg, per cui sono state create strutture specifiche, forze di reazione rapida (60.000 uomini spiegati nell’arco di 60 giorni), gruppi tattici (di 1.500 uomini ciascuno) e una forza di gendarmeria europea.

 

Dalla sua prima missione di peacekeeping nel 2003, l’Unione ha svolto 13 missioni nei punti più disparati del pianeta, di cui 12 ancora in corso. Le operazioni in cui è previsto l’uso della forza si sono svolte in collaborazione con le Nazioni Unite, ma le norme europee non escludono i casi – come quelle che richiedano un rapido intervento per scopi umanitari – in cui il Consiglio dell’Unione Europea possa autorizzare una missione militare anche senza una risoluzione del Consiglio di sicurezza. Nel caso siriano, vista l’empasse dell’Onu dovuta ai veti di Cina e Russia, l’azione europea in Siria sarebbe quindi concretizzabile.

 

L’immobilismo di Bruxelles sulla questione siriana, come sulle crisi di Gaza o quelle che hanno travolto la sponda sud del Mediterraneo in seguito alle rivolte, è da ricercare dunque oltre il piano della potenzialità.

 

Al momento l’Europa è affaccendata con altri problemi. In tempi di crisi sarebbe difficile spiegare all’opinione pubblica un intervento costoso e difficile in una guerra che, seppur grave, è considerata lontana. Per le decisioni che implicano l’uso della forza militare vale il cosiddetto “metodo intergovernativo”, che presuppone l’unanimità. Considerato l’ordine sparso in cui continuano ad agire i governi degli Stati membri guidati da interessi nazionali e real politik, questo rappresenta uno degli ostacoli pratici principali.

 

Italia e Francia sono stati i primi tra gli europei a riconoscere l’opposizione, ma Hollande ha escluso la possibilità di fornire armi ai ribelli. Se si parla di interventismo, a Berlino si oppongono a qualsiasi possibilità di coinvolgimento diretto. Nel summit di venerdì scorso, il premier inglese David Cameron ha evidenziato che “tutte le opzioni devono essere prese in considerazione, niente è fuori dal tavolo”, ma ha puntualizzato anche che “la Siria non è la Libia. Ci sono complicazioni e difficoltà extra”. [Politica di sicurezza e di difesa comune?]

 

Vero. Damasco non è Tripoli. Né Il Cairo, Tunisi, o Teheran. Nonostante i recenti sviluppi, l’opposizione ad Assad resta un conglomerato dai contorni incerti e con pericolose sfumature fondamentaliste. Le divisioni intestine della popolazione civile e a livello politico-militare rimangono forti. Quella in Siria, oltre a una rivolta per i diritti e la democrazia, è chiaramente una guerra civile per il potere interno, che si mescola allo scontro per la supremazia regionale tra blocco sunnita e blocco sciita in corso nell’area mediorientale. Come intervenire e a fianco di chi è un nodo gordiano per Bruxelles e per l’intera comunità internazionale?

 

L’unico punto fermo per l’Europa è la necessità di agire. Per il “dovere morale” di fermare la triste conta delle vittime, ma non solo. Il bacino Mediterraneo e la regione mediorientale restano di grande importanza per l’Ue, perché da questa regione derivano sia le sfide e le problematiche più stringenti della nostra epoca, sia le grandi opportunità in termini di scambi commerciali, sicurezza energetica, sviluppo, cooperazione e arricchimento culturale che l’Europa deve saper cogliere se non vuole essere relegata in un angolo della scena mondiale.

 

C’è poi l’aspetto pragmatico. L’Europa e le potenze occidentali potrebbero non avere l’influenza necessaria per indirizzare la ricostruzione del Paese. La caduta sempre più vicina del regime lascia spazio ad una Siria nuova, dal futuro e dal volto incerto ma che sicuramente non si identifica più con Assad. Una Siria che occorre supportare, ascoltare e rispettare.

 

Non dimentichiamo però che a scalzare le potenze europee durante la decolonizzazione sono stati grandi movimenti popolari e fronti di liberazione che hanno visto combattere fianco a fianco gruppi etnici e fazioni diversissime tra loro. Gli stessi che, una volta scacciato l’“invasore” e conquistato il potere, hanno spesso visto una delle componenti prevalere, cannibalizzare e soggiogare le altre. L’euforia, la libertà acquisita e le aspirazioni a democrazia e sviluppo sono rimaste, puntualmente, schiacciate sotto il peso delle dittature.

 

Dal punto di vista del post-Assad, l’azione di Bruxelles potrebbe fare la differenza. Più che una potenza militare, l’Unione europea è una “potenza civile”. [su questo concordo] La sua strategia di sicurezza consiste nell’avere vicini “ben governati”, stabili ed economicamente floridi, nonché nell’aiutare i paesi critici del pianeta a realizzare una situazione di stabilità strutturale attraverso la promozione dello sviluppo sostenibile, della democrazia, dei diritti umani e dello Stato di diritto. Un modus operandi tutto europeo.

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Al Qaeda grows powerful in Syria as endgame nears

 

Having seen its star wane in Iraq, al Qaeda has staged a comeback in neighbouring Syria, posing a dilemma for the opposition fighting to remove President Bashar al-Assad and making the West balk at military backing for the revolt.

The rise of al Qaeda's affiliate in Syria, al-Nusra Front, which the United States designated a terrorist organisation last week, could usher in a long and deadly confrontation with the West, and perhaps Israel.

Inside Syria, the group is exploiting a widening sectarian rift to recruit Sunnis who saw themselves as disenfranchised by Assad's Alawite minority, an offshoot of Shi'ite Islam that dominates Syria's power and security structures.

Al-Nusra appears to have gained popularity in a country that has turned more religious as the uprising, mainly among Sunni Muslims, has been met with increasing force by authorities.

It has claimed responsibility for spectacular and deadly bombings in Damascus and Aleppo, and its fighters have joined other rebel brigades in attacks on Assad's forces.

According to Site Intelligence group, Nusra claimed responsibility in one day alone last month for 45 attacks in Damascus, Deraa, Hama and Homs provinces that reportedly killed dozens, including 60 in a single suicide bombing.

"In 18 communiqués issued on jihadist forums ... most of which contain pictures of the attacks, the al-Nusra Front claimed ambushes, assassinations, bombings and raids against Syrian security forces and 'shabbiha', pro-Bashar al-Assad thugs," Site said.

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War in Syria Is Becoming Sectarian, U.N. Panel Says

 

Syria’s civil war has evolved from a battle over political change into a conflict that is “overtly sectarian,” pulling fighters from across the Middle East and North Africa into the fray, United Nations investigators said on Thursday.

The risk of political confrontation erupting into ethnic and religious strife had always been present but “as battles between government forces and anti-government armed groups approach the end of their second year, the conflict has become overtly sectarian in nature,” said the investigators, who are members of a panel appointed by the United Nations and led by Paulo Pinheiro of Brazil.

In an interim report to the United Nations Human Rights Council on developments over the last two months, the investigators said attacks and reprisals had led communities to arm themselves and to be armed by different parties to the conflict. “Entire communities are at risk of being forced out of the country or killed inside the country,” they said.

“Feeling threatened and under attack, ethnic and religious minority groups have increasingly aligned themselves with parties to the conflict, deepening sectarian divides,” the panel said.

The sharpest split is between the Alawite sect, a Shiite Muslim minority from which President Bashar al-Assad’s most senior political and military associates are drawn, and the country’s Sunni Muslim majority, mostly aligned with the opposition, the panel noted. Bbut it said the conflict had drawn in other minorities, including Armenians, Christians, Druze, Palestinians, Kurds and Turkmen.

Most foreign fighters joining the conflict are Sunni Muslims from neighboring Middle Eastern and North African countries, many of them linked to extremist groups, the panel said, and often operating independently of the opposition Free Syrian Army but coordinating attacks with its forces.

Lebanon’s Shiite group Hezbollah confirmed that its members were fighting for the Assad government, the panel said, and it was investigating reports that Iraqi Shiites had also entered Syria. Iran has also confirmed that members of its Revolutionary Guards Corps are providing the Assad regime with “intellectual and advisory support.”

Making their fourth submission to the Human Rights Council, the panel of four investigators said government forces and supporting militias had attacked Sunni civilians and opposition forces had attacked Alawite and other pro-government communities. It said Kurdish groups had clashed with both government and antigovernment forces, Turkmen militias were fighting with antigovernment forces, and Palestinians, increasingly split in their view of the Assad government, were being armed by both pro- and antigovernment forces.

Summing up developments over the past two months, the panel said opposition groups, helped by access to increased amounts of weaponry, had been able to challenge government control of sensitive infrastructure like oil fields, major highways, airports and military camps. Government forces, focused on securing major cities, are reportedly engaging in fewer ground actions and resorting more to shelling and air attacks.

The panel said it had received a significant increase in accounts of civilians directly targeted in aerial attacks and had heard of many incidents of civilians suffering multiple casualties from shelling by government forces that had targeted state hospitals as well as field hospitals in opposition-controlled areas. In addition, “consistent accounts of summary executions by antigovernment forces continue to be collected,” the investigators said.

“As the conflict drags on, the parties have become ever more violent and unpredictable, which has led to their conduct increasingly being in breach of international law,” the panel concluded.

 

 

Putin: Ending Syrian war takes priority over al-Assad's fate

 

Russia declared Thursday that its goal is to end the bloody conflict in Syria, not help the nation's embattled president cling to power at all costs.

"We are advocating the solution that would prevent the collapse of the region and the continuous civil war," Russian President Vladimir Putin said at a televised news conference in Moscow.

"Not retain (President Bashar) al-Assad and his regime."

To do that, he said, talks between opposing sides are crucial.

"First, people should negotiate, agree on how their participation would be guaranteed ... not first destroy everything and then try to negotiate," Putin said.

Al-Assad has not visited Moscow a lot in his tenure, and Russia does not have "special economic relations" with Syria, according to Putin.

Russia is "not concerned" about al-Assad's fate, he said.

"We understand what's going on there (in Syria). We know that this family has been in power for 40 years," he said.

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Dentro Jabhat al Nusra, l’ala più estrema della lotta siriana

 

Per Washington rappresentano una minaccia terroristica, della stessa portata di al Qaeda. Per Damasco, Aleppo, Homs e Idlib, costituiscono, per certi versi, una valida alternativa per combattere Assad. È in questa dicotomia che si colloca il Fronte dei sostenitori per la liberazione della Siria (Jabhat al Nusra). Si tratta dell’ala più estrema della lotta siriana, osteggiata in Occidente e sostenuta in patria. All’indomani della decisione americana di includere il gruppo ribelle nella blacklist delle organizzazioni terroristiche, in gran parte della Siria si sono levate voci di protesta.

Come documenta France 24, dopo la preghiera del venerdì migliaia di siriani sono scesi per le strade di Aleppo a sostegno del gruppo ribelle. “Il vero terrorista è Assad” e “grazie a tutti i terroristi che stanno combattendo in Siria contro Assad”, sono stati gli slogan più scanditi nella marcia di protesta. Per il dipartimento di Stato americano, Jabhat al Nusra è solo un nome di facciata per nascondere un vecchio nemico, al Qaeda in Iraq. In patria invece il gruppo ribelle sta riscuotendo ampio successo.

Combattenti per la libertà o terroristi, chi sono i ribelli di Jabhat al Nusra? L’organizzazione irrompe nell’universo virtuale nel gennaio 2012, diffondendo sul web rivendicazioni di attentati messi a segno nei mesi precedenti, soprattutto ad Aleppo e Damasco. Il più grave degli attacchi risale al 6 gennaio di quest’anno, quando un attentatore suicida fece saltare in aria un autobus nel centralissimo quartiere Al-Midan. Il bus preso di mira stava trasportando poliziotti in assetto anti-sommossa incaricati di reprimere una protesta anti-regime. Più di ventisei persone, la maggior parte civili, furono uccisi. Da allora gli attacchi suicidi e le autobombe fatte esplodere a distanza sono aumentati drammaticamente, contribuendo a modificare il volto della rivolta siriana contro il regime di Bashar al Assad.

Da gennaio sono stati rivendicati più di 500 attacchi, compresi attentati suicidi. Animata da un’ideologia estremista e votata al martirio, la brigata attira tra i suoi ranghi volontari provenienti da realtà circostanti. E sembra essere questa la chiave del suo successo. Sulla base di informazioni filtrate dai forum jihadisti vicini ad al Qaeda, su quarantasei individui riconosciuti come “martiri”, venti di loro appartenevano al gruppo Jabhat al Nusra. Nella maggior parte dei casi si tratta di veterani che avevano già combattuto in Iran, Iraq e Afghanistan.

Jabhat al-Nusra può essere interpretato come il prodotto della geopolitica internazionale. Il vuoto di potere che si è sviluppato in seno all’opposizione e l’incapacità della comunità internazionale nella gestione della lunga agonia siriana hanno contribuito al suo proliferare. L’organizzazione si è diffusa da Hama (quartier generale) ad altre città siriane e ha saputo sfruttare a suo vantaggio, fin dalla sua prima comparsa sul web, i canali della comunicazione virtuale. Soprattutto forum e blog. Attraverso i blog, Jabhat al-Nusra non si è preclusa la possibilità di avviare contatti con reti jihadiste vicine ad al Qaeda, come Shamukh al-Islam e al-Faida al-Islam. Non è ancora chiaro chi sia il capo della brigata al-Nusra. Si conosce soltanto il suo nome di battaglia, Abu Muhammad al-Golani, dove Golani è una sorta di soprannome con chiaro riferimento alle alture del Golan.

Nel video-messaggio diffuso a gennaio dove si annunciava la nascita di un nuovo fronte di combattenti, la voce registrata e alterata di al-Golani è rimbalzata sui principali forum jihadisti. “Sono venuto in Siria pochi mesi dopo la rivoluzione, da uno dei campi di battaglia jihadisti per aiutare i fratelli siriani contro il regime di Assad”.

Il 20 giugno sul forum Ansar al-Mujahideen viene pubblicato un opuscolo dove si spiega l’ideologia che anima il gruppo Jabhat al-Nusra e la loro natura. Ecco uno stralcio tradotto dall’arabo: “Sono una fonte benedetta poiché raccoglie in sé i migliori combattenti da varie parti della terra e li concentra sulla terra di Levante, al fine di pulire l’abominio di Bashar e della sua banda, instaurando il dominio di Allah, portando la giustizia, la libertà e l’uguaglianza nel paese”.

Il gruppo utilizza tattiche molto simili a quelle impiegate dai combattenti jihadisti in Iraq dopo l’invasione Usa del 2003, dagli agguati ai rapimenti, dagli omicidi agli attentati. Si differenzia in tal modo dalle tattiche militari e di combattimento utilizzate dall’Esercito libero siriano. Nonostante il crescente consenso popolare, non sono mancate critiche provenienti da ambienti salafiti e jihadisti stessi. Note di disapprovazione sono state espresse dall’ideologo Abu Basir al-Tartusi, oltre che dal religioso salafita Adnan al-Arour. Quest’ultimo è un convinto sostenitore dell’Esl e ha criticato essenzialmente il ruolo svolto dai combattenti stranieri nel movimento, respingendo e condannando gli attenti come tattica di destabilizzazione.

Le critiche non hanno fermato però l’operato di Jabhat al Nusra. Anzi sono sempre di più i sostenitori tra le fila jihadiste più influenti. Abu Muhammad al-Tahawi, leader dei salafiti-jihadisti in Giordania, ha invitato i giovani musulmani a unirsi al Fronte e combattere contro Bashar al Assad.

L’invito non è caduto nel vuoto. Negli ultimi mesi si sono intensificate le azioni offensive del gruppo ribelle, con attacchi simultanei alla sede dell’intelligence di Damasco e all’edificio della tv di Stato. Sono essenzialmente tre i fattori che giocano un ruolo importante nell’ascesa di Jabhat al Nusra: l’effetto sul popolo siriano, oramai vittima quotidiana delle atrocità del regime; le capacità militari del movimento, che in questi mesi ha mostrato coraggio sul campo di battaglia; il sostegno dei principali esponenti della comunità salafita-jihadista. Questo mix esplosivo non ha lasciato indifferenti gli Stati Uniti. L’amministrazione Obama sta tentando in tutti i modi di stroncare l’ascesa di Jabhat al Nusra: il primo passo in questa direzione è stato inserire il Fronte nella lista delle organizzazioni terroristiche. Ma lo sforzo per identificare al meglio le varie fazioni dell’opposizione siriana è ancora esiguo.

 

Syria Unleashes Cluster Bombs on Town, Punishing Civilians

 

The plane came in from the southeast late in the afternoon, releasing its weapons in a single pass. Within seconds, scores of finned bomblets struck and exploded on the homes and narrow streets of this small Syrian town.

After the screams and the desperate gathering of the victims, the staff at the local Freedom Hospital counted 4 dead and 23 wounded. All were civilians, doctors and residents said.

Many forms of violence and hardship have befallen Syria’s people as the country’s civil war has escalated this year. But the Syrian government’s attack here on Dec. 12 pointed to one of the war’s irrefutable patterns: the deliberate targeting of civilians by President Bashar al-Assad’s military, in this case with a weapon that is impossible to use precisely.

Syrians on both sides in this fight have suffered from the bloodshed and sectarian furies given dark license by the war. The victims of the cluster bomb attacks describe the tactic as collective punishment, a mass reprisal against populations that are with the rebels.

The munitions in question — Soviet-era PTAB-2.5Ms — were designed decades ago by Communist engineers to destroy battlefield formations of Western armored vehicles and tanks. They are ejected in dense bunches from free-falling dispensers dropped from aircraft. The bomblets then scatter and descend nose-down to land and explode almost at once over a wide area, often hundreds of yards across.

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NATO: Syrian regime using Scud-type missiles against rebels again

 

NATO's top official says the Syrian military has continued to fire Scud-type missiles against anti-government forces, describing the move as the "acts of a desperate regime approaching collapse."

 

Secretary-General Anders Fogh Rasmussen said Friday that the use of the medium-range rockets showed that NATO was justified in deciding to deploy several batteries of Patriot anti-missile systems in neighboring Turkey.

 

A week ago, U.S. and NATO officials said the Syrians had used the ground-to-ground rockets for the first time in the nearly two-year conflict. Damascus immediately denied the claims.

 

Syria is reported to have an array of artillery rockets, as well as medium-range missiles -- some capable of carrying chemical warheads. These include Soviet-built SS-21 Scarabs and Scud-B missiles, originally designed to deliver nuclear warheads.

 

Syrian rebels attacked a base protecting a military industrial compound in the country's north on Friday as anti-government forces pushed forward in efforts to capture wider areas near the border with Turkey, an activist group said.

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.... usate armi chimiche http://lastampa.it/2012/12/26/esteri/siria-bombe-su-un-villaggio-morti-un-generale-assad-usa-armi-chimiche-aU9FqnHEQ2BL6GMjv4YgHI/pagina.html

 

 

I cadaveri straziati di 27 bambini segnano un’altra giornata di orrore in Siria, dove lo spettro delle armi chimiche sembra prendere corpo e il bilancio dei morti dall’inizio della rivolta contro il regime di Bashar al Assad ha sfondato quota 45.000, tra i quali oltre 31.000 civili.

 

Pare dunque destinato a rimanere inascoltato l’appello lanciato a Natale da Benedetto XVI, che ha chiesto di fermare «lo spargimento di sangue» e auspicato una «soluzione politica» del conflitto che tuttavia le parti, ribelli in primis, non sembrano disponibili a praticare, malgrado gli sforzi dell’inviato di Onu e Lega Araba, Lakhdar Brahimi.

 

La giornata di sangue si è aperta con la notizia della defezione di un altro militare di alto rango, il generale Abdulaziz Jassim al-Shalal, capo della polizia militare siriana, che ha rilanciato le accuse alle forze fedeli ad Assad: «Hanno usato le armi chimiche nell’attacco ad Homs alla vigilia di Natale». I ribelli avevano parlato di un gas velenoso, «molto simile al Sarin», che aveva causato la morte di sette persone e l’intossicazione di altre decine. Il generale ha affermato di aver abbandonato il regime perché si è trasformato in una «cricca di assassini».

 

La durezza del conflitto siriano è stata confermata poche ore dopo dagli attivisti, che hanno denunciato una nuova strage di innocenti, stavolta nel villaggio di al-Qahtania, nella provincia di Raqqa, non lontano dal confine turco. Gli attivisti hanno documentato la morte di 40 persone: tra loro almeno 17 bambini, oltre la metà di meno di 10 anni. Le drammatiche immagini dei cadaveri dei piccoli sono state pubblicate sul web. I ribelli accusano le forze fedeli al regime: i soldati della 17/a divisione hanno lanciato missili sul villaggio, investito da un furioso bombardamento di artiglieria, che ha scatenato il panico tra la popolazione, tanto che in poche ore in migliaia hanno attraversato il confine.

 

L’agenzia di Stato Sana, qualche ora dopo la denuncia del fronte dell’opposizione, ha confermato il massacro dei civili, imputandola tuttavia ai «gruppi terroristici».

Secondo gli attivisti, altri 10 bambini sono stati uccisi in tutto il Paese, con un bilancio complessivo che in serata è arrivato a 130 vittime, comprese 13 donne.

A queste si aggiungono i feriti, molti in gravi condizioni che, come denunciato nei giorni scorsi da fonti ospedaliere, rischiano di andare incontro a morte certa a causa delle gravi carenze che oramai si registrano in tutto il Paese. «Se non ci volete dare le armi almeno inviate medicine», è il tam-tam degli attivisti siriani che gridano vendetta sui social network.

 

Il conflitto dopo 21 mesi registra una pericolosa escalation, e la possibilità che il regime ricorra alle armi chimiche per fronteggiare l’avanzata dei ribelli preoccupa le cancellerie di tutto il mondo. In serata, la tv israeliana Canale 10 ha confermato le anticipazioni del quotidiano arabo al-Quds al-Arabi su una missione “segreta” del premier israeliano Benyamin Netanyahu in Giordania. Netanyahu «ha incontrato re Abdallah», ha affermato la tv. Secondo al-Quds al-Arabi, Israele avrebbe suggerito di distruggere al più presto gli arsenali di armi chimiche, con un attacco militare o l’invio in Siria di una forza internazionale di 8.000 mila uomini incaricati di assumere il controllo degli arsenali.

Sabato a Mosca è atteso l’arrivo di Brahimi, mentre alcuni esponenti del regime sono già in viaggio verso la Russia, probabilmente per riferire sull’incontro dell’inviato con Assad, due giorni fa a Damasco. Ma l’opposizione siriana non ha gradito la tappa in Siria di Brahimi, proprio il 24 dicembre, all’indomani della strage nel panificio di Helfaya, in provincia di Hama, e nel giorno in cui l’esercito avrebbe usato il gas a Homs. Il leader della Coalizione, Ahmad Muaz al Khatib, riconosciuta formalmente da occidentali e monarchie del Golfo, ha già messo nero su bianco il suo no alla «soluzione Brahimi», che prevede un governo di transizione con Assad defilato, ma in carica fino al 2014

 

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... la tragica conta dei morti in Siria http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/01/02/us-syria-crisis-idUSBRE8AJ1FK20130102

 

 

More than 60,000 people have died in Syria's uprising and civil war, the United Nations said on Wednesday, dramatically raising the death toll in a struggle that shows no sign of ending.

In the latest violence, dozens were killed in a rebellious Damascus suburb when a government air strike turned a petrol station into an inferno, incinerating drivers who had rushed there for a rare chance to fill their tanks, activists said.

"I counted at least 30 bodies. They were either burnt or dismembered," said Abu Saeed, an activist who arrived in the area an hour after the 1 p.m. (1100 GMT) raid in Muleiha, a suburb on the eastern edge of the capital.

In the north, rebels launched a major attack to take a military airport, and said they had succeeded in destroying a fighter plane and a helicopter on the ground.

U.N. Human Rights Commissioner Navi Pillay said in Geneva that researchers cross-referencing seven sources over five months of analysis had listed 59,648 people killed in Syria between March 15, 2011 and November 30, 2012.

"The number of casualties is much higher than we expected and is truly shocking," she said. "Given that there has been no let-up in the conflict since the end of November, we can assume that more than 60,000 people have been killed by the beginning of 2013."

There was no breakdown by ethnicity or information about whether the dead were rebels, soldiers or civilians. There was also no estimate of an upper limit of the possible toll.

Previously, the opposition-linked Syrian Observatory for Human Rights monitoring group had put the toll at around 45,000 confirmed dead but said the real number was likely to be higher.

 

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U.S. troops arrive in Turkey; rebels battle for airport in Syria http://edition.cnn.com/2013/01/04/world/meast/syria-civil-war/index.html?hpt=hp_t3

 

 

U.S. troops arrived in Turkey on Friday to man Patriot missile defense batteries near the Syrian border, according to Turkish state media.

Syria has previously launched Scud missiles at cities near the Turkish border in a desperate bid to extend its firepower.

In response, the U.S., Germany and the Netherlands deployed Patriot air defense missiles to the border region to intercept any Syrian ballistic missiles.

The missiles and troops will be under the overall control of NATO, but the missiles will be operated by U.S. forces

A group of 27 U.S. troops landed in Gaziantep, Turkey, where they will survey the Patriot deployment, according to Turkish state news agency, Anadolu.

U.S. officials did not release any information about the troops arrival, but had said last month that forces will be deployed to Turkey.

"We've made very clear to them that were going to protect countries in this region," Defense Secretary Leon Panetta said last month. "We have to act to do what we have to do to make sure that we defend ourselves and make sure that Turkey can defend itself."

The fight for the helicopter airport

Taftenaz airbase in northern Syria has been a deadly thorn in the side of rebels for months, which they have not yet been able to remove.

Free Syrian Army fighters for the third day tried to wrest control of the helicopter airbase from government forces.

If successful, it would shut down President Bashar al-Assad's military helicopter pads and diminish his airstrikes in the region.

Both opposition and government sources reported that the extremist Nusra Front, which the U.S. has designated as a terrorist group, is taking part in the assault on the airport.

Al-Assad has exacted retribution on the nearby city of Binnish, where amateur video shows dozens of smoke plumes marking the spots where deadly ordnance has struck.

On Thursday, rebels published videos of themselves firing on the air base with heavy truck-mounted machine guns and a captured tank, destroying one government tank and appearing to shoot down a helicopter.

CNN cannot confirm the authenticity of videos from the Syrian conflict posted online.

Gas station attack in Damascus

An explosion at a gas station in Damascus near a hospital killed 10 people Friday, Syrian TV reported.

An opposition organization expects the toll to rise as many of the injured are in critical condition after fire spread to nearby cars and buildings.

The explosion came from a car bomb, the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights posted on its Facebook page.

Appeal for missing U.S. journalist

In New Hampshire, the parents of American journalist James Foley appealed Thursday to his kidnappers to release him and inform them of his whereabouts and condition of his health.

Foley's father visibly choked up while reading a statement directed at the abductors. "We'd like them to contact us," he said. "I ask the captors for their compassion and Jame's quick release."

Foley was abducted in November in Syria, where he has worked for a year. He has been detained before while working in Libya, but was later released by the government.

The rapidly mounting death toll

The overall death toll in devastated Syria has surpassed an estimated 60,000 people, the United Nations said Wednesday.

To put it in perspective: 60,000 people is roughly the population of Terre Haute, Indiana; or Cheyenne, Wyoming. It's how many people would fit in Dodger Stadium, and it's more than the 50,000-plus U.S. combat deaths in Vietnam.

The figure is about 15,000 higher than the death toll CNN had cited from a collection of sources.

On Thursday, al-Assad's forces repeatedly bombed the Damascus suburb of Douma with airstrikes. Residents could be seen combing through rubble, pulling out the bodies of those killed on videos posted on the Internet.

 

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Il Mig-21 che è stato espatriato dal suo pilota dalla Siria alla Giordania nel Giugno del 2012, ha fornito le prove che la Siria sta equipaggiando i suoi Mig-21 con un sistema di pilotaggio remoto e della possibilità di portare armi chimiche.

 

Il report è di Flight Global, io riporto la notizia di http://defensetech.org/2013/01/03/report-syria-fitting-fighters-with-chemical-weapons/#more-19099

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Terrorist group fills power vacuum among Syria rebels http://edition.cnn.com/2013/01/09/opinion/bakos-syria-al-qaeda/index.html?hpt=wo_c2

 

 

In the midst of the struggle against Bashar al-Assad's government stands Jabhat al-Nusra, recently designated by the U.S. State Department as a foreign terrorist organization.

A new report by the Quilliam Foundation in London says the organization is the most effective arm of the Syrian insurgency and now fields about 5,000 fighters against the Assad regime.

Practically speaking, the terrorist designation means little that is new for the immediate struggle in Syria. Shortly after al-Nusra claimed credit for one of its early suicide bombings in January 2012, the Obama administration made known al-Nusra's connection to al Qaeda in Iraq, a group with which I was intimately familiar in my capacity as an analyst and targeting officer (the kind of job the Maya character has in "Zero Dark Thirty") at the Central Intelligence Agency.

The administration's position was reinforced when Director of National Intelligence James Clapper one month later testified in front of the Senate Armed Services Committee that "...we believe al-Qaeda in Iraq is extending its reach into Syria."

Al-Nusra is filling a power vacuum through charitable efforts to galvanize local support and generating influence among Syrians. In light of al-Nusra's influence in Syria, the real question is not so much about the scope and scale of al-Nusra currently, but rather how should the United Stats respond to its rise, particularly after al-Assad's eventual exit?

 

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  • 3 settimane dopo...

La notizia è confermata anche se non è chiaro quale sia stato l'obiettivo dell'attacco.. un sito o una colonna che trasportava missili SAM?

Comunque i russi paiono molto inca**ati per l'accaduto. In effetti pare che gli israeliani non abbiano fatto troppa fatica a passare le difese siriane nonostante tutti i consiglieri militari e tecnici russi presenti.

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si, la Siria potrebbe, ma non farà niente di tutto questo.

 

sia perchè, da un punto di vista strettamente militare, sarebbe controproducente: con tutti i problemi che hanno, ci manca solo prendere l'ennesima serie di legnate da parte degli israeliani (non parliamo poi dell'uso di armi chimiche... quale migliore occasione per provare i Jericho su di un bersaglio reale).

 

sia perchè, alla fine, rientra nel "gioco medio-orientale": il convoglio di armi era destinato ad Hezboallah ed è stato pizzicato prima della consegna.

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Secondo "Flightglobal.com" l'operazione è comunque tuttora avvolta nel mistero ....

 

http://www.flightglobal.com/news/articles/mystery-clouds-israeli-air-strike-on-syria-381774/

 

 

Un articolo del quotidiano "The Jerusalem Post" che riporta alcune delle informazioni citate da "Flightglobal.com" ....

 

http://www.jpost.com/Defense/Article.aspx?id=301751

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Questa di per se è già una legnata e di quelle grosse, sia per la Siria che per i tecnici russi...

F-16 tra l'altro armati e probabilmente con serbatoi, quindi mica f-22, che entrano tranquillamente in uno spazio aereo, sulla carta, tra più moderni ed efficacemente difesi sistemi di tutto il medioriente.. bombardano un sito pare anche parecchio sensibile, se le indiscrezioni sono vere, e se ne vanno indisturbati.

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