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Il problema non è assolutamente questo, l'OPEC son quarant'anni che decide autonomamente e spesso in maniera alquanto aggressiva il prezzo del greggio senza che nessuno dei paesi abbia l'atomica, ness

E' arrivata una seconda carrier USA: la CNV 70 Carl Vinson source   Il gruppo USA conta quindi 2 super carrier (CNV 70 Carl Vinson e CVN 74 John Stennis), e prossimamente comincerà una esercitazione

Vorrei segnalare una monumentale analisi in italiano, articolata in ben 5 parti su Iran - Minacce e Scenari, di Difesa24:   http://www.difesa24.it/post/IRAN-Minacce-Scenari-Attacco-preventivo-IDF-pr

4 navi anti mine in arrivo per la 5 flotta USA source


Four U.S. Navy mine countermeasures (MCM) ships arrived in the U.S. 5th Fleet area of operations aboard M/V Tern, June 23.

USS Sentry (MCM 3), USS Devastator (MCM 6), USS Pioneer (MCM 9) and USS Warrior (MCM 10) were transported from San Diego aboard M/V Tern to support a U.S. Central Command request for additional MCM assets in the U.S. 5th Fleet area of responsibility.


The MCM ships are scheduled for a seven-month deployment with rotational crews from San Diego to provide continuous manning.

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Raiding Iran Triggers Discussion Of When And How


Iran’s Arms Programs Continue To Accelerate


“We don't think the Iranians really believe that [the U.S. will strike],” Stephen Rademaker, a member of the National Security Project (NSP), recently told the House Armed Services Committee. But once the U.S. became bogged down in the Iraq conflict, it restarted its weapons effort.

“The Revolutionary Guard holds that power and will dictate what takes place,” says former Sen. Charles Robb, a co-chairman of the NSP. Washington may have to divert resources from the new Asia-Pacific strategy to the Middle East to ensure Iran takes a military threat seriously, he says.

The Senate also weighed in.

“We must conclude that Tehran is using the talks as a cover to buy time as it continues to advance toward nuclear weapons capability,” says a June 15 letter from 44 U.S. senators to President Barack Obama. “Allowing Iran to gain this capability is unacceptable.” The letter was organized by Sens. Robert Menendez (D-N.J.) and Roy Blunt (R-Mo).

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Iran to deploy submarines in Caspian Sea


The Saturday report by Fars quotes Adm. Abbas Zamini as saying Iran plans to deploy “light submarines” to the oil-rich sea that adjoins Iran, Russia, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan and Azerbaijan. He did not elaborate.


Iran has domestically built several small submarines over the past years. It has recently overhauled one of the three non-nuclear Russian Kilo-class submarines it bought in the 1990s.

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Iran to fire missiles in desert war games


Iran's Revolutionary Guards announced they are to fire ballistic and other missiles at desert targets during three days of war games starting Monday in a warning to threats of military action by Israel and the United States.

“Long-, medium- and short-range surface-to-surface missiles will be fired from different locations in Iran… at replica airbases like those used by out-of-region military forces,” the head of the Guards aerospace division in charge of missile systems, Brigadier General Amir Ali Hajizadeh, said.

“These manoeuvres send a message to the adventurous nations that the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps is standing up to bullies alongside the determined and unified Iranian nation, and will decisively respond to any trouble they cause,” he was quoted as saying by the Guards’ official Sepah News website.

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segnalo quest'analisi Negotiations Behind U.S. Sanctions Against Iran che segue l'imposizione dell'embargo USA nei confornti del petrolio iraniano


in pratica dice che, in apparenza, gli USA sperano che queste sanzioni portino alla caduta del regime iraniano, ma in realtà sarebbe in corso un negoziato "riservato".


Ecco (secondo l'analisi) i punti salienti/richieste dal punto di vista dell'Iran:

- The United States and Iran must continue to negotiate.

- Sanctions hurt Iran economically but by no means paralyze Iranian trade.

- Iran cannot be sure that any bilateral agreement made with the United States will be honored by a new administration come November.

- The United States must abandon any policy intended to bring about regime change in Tehran.

- Washington has few remaining options other than military intervention, which is an unlikely outcome.

- Iran can significantly increase pressure on the United States by, for example, threatening the security of the Strait of Hormuz, an act that would raise the price of U.S. oil.

- the Islamic Republic is willing to agree on a face-saving solution that would induce it to give up the cards it has gained over the past years


L'analisi prosegue notando che la situazione nella zona è abbastanza tranquilla, e segnala le "red line" per i due paesi.


Segnalo inoltre:


U.S. Adds Forces in Persian Gulf, a Signal to Iran


The United States has quietly moved significant military reinforcements into the Persian Gulf to deter the Iranian military from any possible attempt to shut the Strait of Hormuz and to increase the number of fighter jets capable of striking deep into Iran if the standoff over its nuclear program escalates.

The deployments are part of a long-planned effort to bolster the American military presence in the gulf region, in part to reassure Israel that in dealing with Iran, as one senior administration official put it last week, “When the president says there are other options on the table beyond negotiations, he means it.”


e il Kenya Kenya agrees to buy Iran oil, is silent on sanctions (nonostante le sanzioni)


Kenya has agreed to import 4 million tonnes of Iranian crude oil per year, a senior Kenyan energy official said on Monday.

Patrick Nyoike, permanent secretary at the energy ministry, said the two governments signed the memorandum of understanding on the oil last month. He did not say how many years the agreement covered.

"The details will come later," Nyoike told Reuters by telephone, declining to comment on how the deal sits with US and European Union (EU) sanctions against Iranian oil exports.

Edited by Andrea75
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Kenya, i due iraniani arrestati a giugno erano agenti della divisione al-Quds


Progettavano attentati contro obiettivi occidentali e israeliani. Trovati in possesso di esplosivo. Chiusa ambasciata Usa


Iran says can destroy U.S. bases "minutes after attack"


Iran has threatened to destroy U.S. military bases across the Middle East and target Israel within minutes of being attacked, Iranian media reported on Wednesday, as Revolutionary Guards extended test-firing of ballistic missiles into a third day.


Defence analysts are often sceptical about what they describe as exaggerated military assertions by Iran and say the country's military capability would be no match for sophisticated U.S. defence systems.

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Avvicendamento o incremento delle forze in teatro?


Third US Aircraft Carrier Returning Unexpectedly To Mideast Ahead Of Schedule


USS John C. Stennis is returning to the Middle East much sooner than expected. The Navy hasn't officially announced the new deployment plan for the Stennis, said spokesman Lt. Cmdr. Zach Harrell."


USS Stennis going right back to Mideast

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2 portaerei (Enterprise e Lincoln) sotto il compando della 5^ flotta, 3 se consideriamo la Eisenhower nel Mediterrano e la Stennis che si vocifera in arrivo verso la fine di agosto, la nave d'assalto anfibia Iwo Jima sempre sotto il comando della 5^ flotta, navi antimine, ed ora US sends sub drones over fears of Hormuz closure


The United States has deployed a fleet of robot subs in the Gulf to prevent Iran from blocking the strategic Strait of Hormuz with mines in the event of a crisis, officials said Thursday.

The “SeaFox” drone “has been deployed in the Fifth fleet AOR,” which includes the Persian Gulf and the Arabian Sea, a Navy official told AFP, confirming information first reported in the Los Angeles Times newspaper.

The undersea drone, about four feet (1.2 meters) long and equipped with a camera and sonar, is guided by a cable from a ship.


poi la rinata USS Ponce, che da nave da trasporto anfibia diventa una base galleggiante Base afloat in the Persian Gulf displays new U.S. way of war


The first mission of the reborn Ponce was designed to be low profile and defensive, as an operations hub for mine clearing in the Strait of Hormuz, a counter to threats from Tehran to close the vital commercial waterway. In that role, the Ponce will be a launching pad for helicopters, a home to underwater diver teams and a service station providing fuel and maintenance for mine-sweeping ships.

But with the relatively simple addition of a modular barracks on the deck, the Ponce can also be a mobile base[/b] for several hundred Special Operations forces to carry out missions such as hostage rescue, counterterrorism, reconnaissance, sabotage and direct strikes. Even with the addition of the barracks, there is ample room for helicopters and the small, fast boats favored by commandos.


The Ponce operates from international waters. Surprise and speed are critical to military success; the Ponce can sail close to areas of conflict. And having the ability to carry out different missions for different armed services branches is more valuable than having a weapons platform that does just one thing for one military branch.


Semplice deterrenza?

Edited by Andrea75
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Panetta Accelerates Stennis Carrier Strike Group Deployment


The Navy will deploy the aircraft carrier USS John C. Stennis and its strike group four months early and shift its destination to the U.S. Central Command area of responsibility, DOD officials said here today.

The deployment late this summer is in response to Central Command’s requirement for an extended carrier presence, Pentagon Press Secretary George Little said. The move affects 5,500 sailors aboard the Stennis and the Aegis cruiser USS Mobile Bay.


Currently the USS Enterprise and USS Abraham Lincoln carrier strike groups are deployed to U.S. Central Command. The USS Eisenhower Carrier Strike Group is due to relieve the Lincoln group shortly. The Stennis group will relieve Enterprise.

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U.S. Unveils Anti-Mine Operation Near Gulf


The United States and about 20 other nations will hold a major anti-mine operation near the Gulf in September, the Pentagon said July 17, after Iran threatened it could block oil shipments.

The maneuvers, including a symposium on mine countermeasures, will be held between Sept. 16 to 27, Pentagon spokesman George Little said.

“It’s a defensive exercise aimed at preserving freedom of navigation in international waterways in the Middle East,”

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US building missile defense station in Qatar


The Pentagon is building a missile defense radar station at a covert location in Qatar, The Wall Street Journal reported Tuesday.

The site will be part of a system intended to defend the interests of the United States and its allies against Iranian rockets, unnamed US officials told the newspaper.

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Dall'articolo postato da Andrea75 ....


A similar radar has existed on Mount Keren in the Negev Desert since 2008 and another is installed in Turkey as part of NATO’s missile defense shield.

L'impianto radar in questione è il Raytheon AN/TPY-2 ....





In Israele .... http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,2115955,00.html


In Turchia .... http://www.defensenews.com/article/20120130/DEFREG04/301300013/U-S-Maintains-Full-Control-Turkish-Based-Radar



Quest'ultimo, in realtà, è poco gradito ai Russi ....





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Secondo me queste sono misure volte a far capire allo strano gruppo dirigente iraniano, di cui personalmente non so molto, credo però siano in gran parte Mullah anziani della "prima generazione" rivoluzionaria, che gli USA all'occorrenza potranno dare corpo alle loro minacce nel caso in cui l'atteggiamento iraniano dovesse permanere aggressivo e poco corretto. Storicamente i militari ed i politici americani fanno seguire a simili azioni preparatorie,perchè queste ultime attività possono essere viste come preparatorie per una azione militare, un raid o azioni con truppe speciali,però al momento non sembra che si sia superato il punto di non ritorno.

C'è però un particolare che rende l'opzione militare "limitata" molto meno unlikely che nei mesi scorsi: ci avviciniamo alle elezioni di novembre e l'elettorato del Midwest è contento quando gli USA mostrano i muscoli, a mio parere un qualche tipo di incursione da oggi all'autunno potrebbe anche essere considerata praticabile

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Secondo me queste sono misure volte a far capire allo strano gruppo dirigente iraniano, di cui personalmente non so molto, credo però siano in gran parte Mullah anziani della "prima generazione" rivoluzionaria, che gli USA all'occorrenza potranno dare corpo alle loro minacce nel caso in cui l'atteggiamento iraniano dovesse permanere aggressivo e poco corretto. Storicamente i militari ed i politici americani fanno seguire a simili azioni preparatorie,perchè queste ultime attività possono essere viste come preparatorie per una azione militare, un raid o azioni con truppe speciali,però al momento non sembra che si sia superato il punto di non ritorno.

C'è però un particolare che rende l'opzione militare "limitata" molto meno unlikely che nei mesi scorsi: ci avviciniamo alle elezioni di novembre e l'elettorato del Midwest è contento quando gli USA mostrano i muscoli, a mio parere un qualche tipo di incursione da oggi all'autunno potrebbe anche essere considerata praticabile


Allargando lo sguardo all'intero medio oriente, credo che sia in corso una competizione per ampliare/consolidare la propria sfera di influenza:

- l'Iran che vuole mantenere e, se possibile, aumentare la propria influenza sulla traballante Siria

- la Russia che teme di perdere l'attuale potere che vanta nei confronti della Siria

- gli USA e gli stati arabi del golfo (Arabia Saudita in primis) che farebbero qualsiasi cosa per contrastare ogni ambizione iraniana.


Inserendo le varie "azioni" in corso nella zona credo si possano intuire le strategie delle varie parti in causa


Inoltre segnalo Nuke director: Iran not building nuclear submarines


The head of Iran’s Atomic Energy Organization told a state sponsored news service that Iran has no plans right now to develop a nuclear powered submarine despite the recent support inside Iran’s parliament.

U.S. officials essentially scoffed at this idea pointing out how young Iran’s nuclear program still is. To think the country’s scientists could design a reactor to power a submarine seemed far fetched.

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Il Kuwait acquista un po' di missili U.S. Plans $4.2B Patriot Missile Sale To Kuwait


The Pentagon said Wednesday it planned to sell 60 Patriot missiles to Kuwait in a deal worth an estimated $4.2 billion, as the emirate tries to bolster its defenses against the threat from Iran.


Congress has 30 days to raise any objections it may have. If nothing is said, the contract is deemed valid after that waiting period.

The deal involves the sale of 60 Patriot advanced capability (PAC-3) missiles, 20 launching stations, four radar systems and control stations, personnel training and training equipment, and spare parts, the DSCA said.

“Kuwait will use the PAC-3 missiles and equipment to improve its missile defense capability, strengthen its homeland defense, and deter regional threats,” the agency said.

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Upgraded 30,000-lb Massive Ordnance Penetrator bomb ready to destroy deeply buried bunkers in Iran, Syria etc.


The GBU-57 Massive Ordnance Penetrator, or MOP, a massive 30,000-lb bomb that can destroy deeply buried bunkers, has been upgraded and ready to be carried by the U.S. Air Force B-52, B-1 and B-2 bombers.


“If it needed to go today, we would be ready to do that,” he said. “We continue to do testing on the bomb to refine its capabilities, and that is ongoing. We also have the capability to go with existing configuration today” Air Force Secretary Michael Donley said on Jul. 25.


The GBU-57 is a 20 foot long GPS-guided bomb believed to be able to penetrate 200 feet down before exploding and began development after Gulf War 2 after it was found that earlier versions had poor ground penetration.


Although the type of upgrades it received were not made public, the bomb should have been equipped with new fusing and tail fins needed to give it a greater ground penetration.


The bunker buster bomb can be used to destroy nuclear facilities (as those in Iran – those for which the weapon was improved) as well as bunkers that protect chemical, biological and nuclear weapons (as those in Syria).

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Promesse da campagna elettorale Romney: Gerusalemme capitale d'Israele


Romney riconosce ad Obama il merito di aver rafforzato la «cooperazione militare e di intelligence» con lo Stato ebraico, ma sull’Iran fa un passo in più, spiegando che «se Israele dovesse decidere un attacco militare esprimerei rispetto per il suo diritto di difendersi». «A volte si ritiene che chi vuole fermare la corsa dell’Iran al nucleare vuole la guerra - aggiunge Romney -, ma è vero l’esatto opposto».


Obama a Washington firma la legge che rafforza la cooperazione strategica con Israele mentre proprio a Gerusalemme il suo consigliere per la sicurezza Tom Donilon presenta al premier Netanyahu i piani d’attacco del Pentagono contro l’Iran «se la diplomazia fallirà»: si tratta di bombardamenti con i più potenti ordigni antibunker esistenti per colpire gli impianti nucleari sotterranei. È il quotidiano Haaretz a svelare quanto ha fatto Donilon, spingendo i portavoce di Netanyahu a smentire «l’incontro mai avvenuto». La Casa Bianca invece tace, consapevole che le indiscrezioni giovano a rafforzare l’immagine di Obama garante della sicurezza d’Israele.
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Gruppo di terroristi cattura blindati egiziani ed entra in Israele: uccisi cinque terroristi


Cinque membri del commando che domenica aveva assaltato il posto di frontiera di Karm Abou Salem (Kerem Shalom in ebraico), tra Egitto e Israele, nei pressi di Gaza, uccidendo 16 guardie di frontiera sono stati uccisi dall'esercito israeliano. Lo conferma un portavoce di Tel Aviv: «I corpi di cinque uomini armati sono stati trovati da una pattuglia israeliana», ha spiegato senza fornire ulteriori spiegazioni.


Gli assalitori, in seguito, erano penetrati in territorio israeliano su uno dei blindati dove sarebbero stati annientati. Il secondo blindato sarebbe addirittura stato distrutto in territorio egiziano dall'aviazione di Tel Aviv.

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A tale of a missed opportunity over Iran by Peter Jenkins (a former United Kingdom ambassador to the International Atomic Energy Association (IAEA).


All this begs two questions: why did Iran cease applying the Additional Protocol in 2006 and why have they not voluntarily reapplied it since? Nothing forced Iran to reduce cooperation with the IAEA to the legal minimum in 2006. They could have resumed enrichment work but continued to grant Protocol access. And since 2006 they could have wrong-footed their adversaries by reapplying the Protocol and winning the best guarantee the IAEA can give: "no undeclared nuclear activities or material".

I don't know the answers. It's a puzzle. Is this simply a case of reluctance to lose face by reversing an unwise decision? Are the Iranians worried that granting Protocol access would enable the IAEA to discover undeclared activities and/or material, aggravating Iran's Security Council predicament? Has Iran lost all confidence in the impartiality and professionalism of the IAEA secretariat, which was accused last year of taking instructions from Iran's Western adversaries?

One thing, however, is certain: if Iran wants to put an end to repeated Western calls for it to prove that its nuclear program is exclusively peaceful, reapplying the Additional Protocol is the solution. The one and only proof of a peaceful program that the non-proliferation community cannot contest are the assurances that can result from the IAEA's Protocol investigations: "no undeclared nuclear activities or material". Those words are the key to demonstrating to the world that there is no nuclear proliferation justification for sanctioning Iran or threatening it with devastation.

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  • 2 weeks later...

Un blogger israeliano ha sbandierato a tutto il mondo un ipotetico piano di attacco della sua nazione http://www.agi.it/in-primo-piano/notizie/201208161159-ipp-rt10055-blogger_israeliano_svela_piani_segreti_di_attacco_all_iran

Tempo fa vidi anche questo link su youtube (a grandi linee dice le stesse cose del blogger) http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lOdAsxNyDWc



Dato che ormai l'attacco sembra sempre più vicino.... Vorrei chiedere a chi ne sa più di me alcune cose:

Ho letto post precedenti di Andrea75 (che sta facendo un grandissimo lavoro segnalando numerosi link interessanti), in pratica l'Azerbaijan è praticamente un alleato di israele vista lo scambio di armi e di favori... Però in caso di conflitto interverrà secondo voi? Un conto è acquistare armi per difendersi, un conto è per attaccare. Questo vale anche per il Kwait (un link riportava una notizia secondo la quale il piccolo stato arabo avesse acquistato alcuni missili).


Quello che non so, qui chiedo a voi, come sono messi gli altri stati presenti nello scacchiere del golfo persico? Arabia Saudita, Turchia, Emirati Arabi Uniti, Qatar, Barhein, Oman, Yemen, Pakistan ?

Io so che la maggior parte di essi sono contro l'iran ma non so fino a che punto, in caso di guerra permetterebbero ai caccia muniti di stella di Davide di passare?

Ora come ora si parla di un Israele in prima fascia con gli USA che potrebbero supportarli.... ma questi stati arabi? Starebbero a guardare?


Io ho un po' di timore... Ho solo 18 anni, l'iran non è la Libia. Non è capace di resistere a Israele e USA però i due stati comunisti più grandi al mondo la supportano. Potrebbero in qualche modo avere ritorsioni, secondo voi? Non dico che scendano in guerra ma qualcosa potrebbero fare?

Scusate l'ultimo commento personale ma aver sentito che Iran abbia armi chimiche, atomica vicina, e razzi capaci di arrivare in Italia...

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Ormai sono diversi anni che,più o meno periodicamente, si sentono "rumors" di iniziative armate contro l'Iran,o meglio, contro i possibili siti dedicati al programma nucleare degli Ayatollah,però poi alla fine tutto si risolve in un nulla di fatto.

Io, che non sono un esperto, penso che le recenti esperienze in Iraq- dove quella che avrebbe dovuto essere una guerra breve si è trasformata in un pantano- e ancor di più l'Afghanistan abbiano rafforzato la determinazione di molti politici israeliani, non soltanto i laburisti, anzi, a non prendere decisioni affrettate e di "portare molta pazienza"; così come penso che i governanti dei Paesi limitrofi cerchino di tenersi il più possibile fuori da una bega che, a conti fatti, riguarda direttamente più Israele che i Paesi musulmani.

E' vero che l'iran ha più volte minacciato tutti i suoi nemici vicini e lontani,però minacciare non costa nulla, mantenere è un altro discorso, non credo che l'Iran decida di peggiorare la sua situazione coinvolgendo all'impazzata tutti i Paesi vicini.

Insomma, niente di nuovo sotto il sole, in verità molto forte del Golfo Persico in questa estate fin troppo calda

Edited by Simone
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A prescindere dall'attnedibilità delle fonti e del blog, è comunque assodato che il prossimo conflitto tra stati organizzati (quindi non azioni come quella in afghanistan ad esempio), si combattera prima sulla rete. Cosa impensabile fino a pochi anni fa.

C'è una dicussione in proposito e non voglio deviare troppo sull'argomento, ma credo che un eventuale conflitto tra questi due stati sarà un vero banco di prova per la guerra del futuro e nelle varie previsioni e contromisure l'aspetto informatico sarà importatnissimo


La cosa ha un senso perchè è un modo di ridurre perdite e danni e conviene ad entrambi gli stati cercare di sfruttare questo aspetto il più possibile

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  • 2 weeks later...

Nuovo report IAEA datato 30 agosto 2012 Implementation of the NPT Safeguards Agreement and relevant provisions of Security Council resolutions in the Islamic Republic of Iran


Riporto solo le conclusioni


L. Summary

52. While the Agency continues to verify the non-diversion of declared nuclear material at the nuclear facilities and LOFs declared by Iran under its Safeguards Agreement, as Iran is not providing the necessary cooperation, including by not implementing its Additional Protocol, the Agency is unable to provide credible assurance about the absence of undeclared nuclear material and activities in Iran, and therefore to conclude that all nuclear material in Iran is in peaceful activities.


53. Despite the intensified dialogue between the Agency and Iran since January 2012, no concrete results have been achieved in resolving the outstanding issues. Given the nature and extent of credible information available, the Agency considers it essential for Iran to engage with the Agency without further delay on the substance of the Agency’s concerns. In the absence of such engagement, the Agency will not be able to resolve concerns about issues regarding the Iranian nuclear programme, including those which need to be clarified to exclude the existence of possible military dimensions to

Iran’s nuclear programme.


54. It is a matter of concern that the activities which have taken place since February 2012 at the location within the Parchin site to which the Agency has requested access will have an adverse impact on the Agency’s ability to undertake effective verification. The Agency reiterates its request for access

to that location without further delay.


55. The Director General continues to urge Iran, as required in the binding resolutions of the Board of Governors and mandatory Security Council resolutions, to take steps towards the full implementation of its Safeguards Agreement and its other obligations, and to urge Iran to engage with the Agency to achieve concrete results on all outstanding substantive issues.


56. The Director General will continue to report as appropriate.


Segnalo inoltre alcuni articoli:


The August 2012 IAEA Report on Iran: An Initial Assessment


IAEA not authorized to inspect Parchin military site: Iranian MP


Iran says reactor at Bushehr nuclear plant has reached full capacity


AP analysis: Iran’s arms denials may indicate Japan-style push to nuclear ‘threshold’


What about Israel’s nuclear weapons?

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Iran claims progress on new air defense system


The commander of Iran’s air defense forces has said that Iran has completed about 30 percent of a new missile defense system.


Brigadier General Farzad Esmaili said on September 3 that he expects the Bavar-373 system to be completed by the end of next year.


He described the system as “more advanced” than Soviet-era S-300 surface-to-air missiles, saying they are better at “detecting, identifying and destroying targets.”

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